"If it crosses this line, it won't see the bottom"...Will Bitcoin's 13-year '30% rule' work again?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Godasol

As Bitcoin (BTC) approaches a 'statistical turning point that has never been broken in history,' rather than just a simple resistance, market tension is increasing.

According to the cryptocurrency specialized media Bitcoinist on April 26 (local time), Bitcoin has maintained a pattern for 13 years where it does not retest its cycle low after a 30% rebound from that low. This rule has never been broken in a total of 6 major cycles.

This year's trend is also similar. Bitcoin has continued to rebound since recording a low of approximately $61,300 in February, rising about 28% to date. Based on this, the 30% recovery line is approximately $79,694, which is effectively considered a key turning point that determines whether it enters a 'no-retrace upward trend'.

Past cases are strong. After breaking through a 30% rebound from the $2.01 low in 2011, it surged to $1,163, and the same pattern was repeated at the lows of $152 in 2015, $3,858 in 2020, and $17,592 in 2022. Notably, the $15,460 low formed after the FTX collapse in 2022 was also no exception.

The current price is around $77,620, with only about a 2.7% rise remaining to reach the 30% threshold. It approached $79,000 at one point this week, almost reaching the historical turning point.

On-chain indicators also support this. Bitcoin holdings on exchanges have decreased to an all-time low, and over the past 30 days, large investors have purchased an additional approximately 270,000 BTC, marking the largest monthly accumulation since 2013.

Now, market attention narrows down to just one thing: Will Bitcoin break through $79,694 and prove the '30% rule' again, or will the 13-year statistic be broken for the first time?

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*