“590% Surge vs. Realistic $2”…XRP's 2026 Rebound Scenarios Diverge

▲ XRP/AI generated image ©

After a sharp decline, market outlooks are extremely divided on whether XRP (Ripple), which has lost its direction, can return to an upward trajectory.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet Watcher.Guru on April 25 (local time), XRP is currently trading between $1.42 and $1.45, approximately 60% down from its peak of $3.65 recorded in July 2025. This decline is analyzed as a result of a combination of the overall cryptocurrency market weakness and XRP's own structural issues.

There are clear structural factors behind the decline. The Ripple payment network does not necessarily require the use of XRP, and fiat-based payments are also possible. Furthermore, the fact that RLUSD, a stablecoin issued by Ripple, can act as a bridge within the same network and partially replace direct XRP demand is also a burden. Moreover, the structure in which Ripple holds approximately 38 billion out of a total supply of 100 billion XRP is also cited as a factor that makes the price dependent on the company's performance.

Nevertheless, bullish arguments still exist. Some traders claim that XRP could reach $10 by the summer of 2026. This would require an approximately 590% increase from the current price. However, institutional investors' perspectives are more conservative. Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered suggested a target price of $2.80 for 2026, followed by $7 in 2027 and $12.60 in 2028. He analyzed that the recovery path depends more on the improvement of the macroeconomic environment than on XRP's own issues.

Model-based forecasts show a similar trend. The expected price range for XRP in 2026 is presented as $1.37 to $2.20, with an average price of approximately $1.67. Notably, September and October were highlighted as short-term rebound periods, with potential increases of approximately 48% and 55%, respectively.

On-chain data shows some positive signals. Large wallets have accumulated approximately 360 million XRP over the past week, and a total of $55.39 million has flowed into XRP spot ETFs for seven consecutive days. The simultaneous inflow of whale and institutional funds is rare, making it a factor that supports mid-to-long-term upward expectations.

Ultimately, a short-term breakthrough to $10 is unrealistic, but a recovery to the $2-$3 range is analyzed as a sufficiently plausible scenario based on data. The market atmosphere leans towards 'gradual recovery' rather than excessive expectations.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*