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Wall Street sign outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
This week (April 27 - May 1, U.S. Eastern Time), the New York stock market is also expected to be shaped by the progress of negotiations between the United States and Iran.
First, the second round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which had garnered market expectations, ultimately fell through.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on the 25th that he did not send his son-in-law Jared Kushner and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to Islamabad, Pakistan.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also moved to Muscat, the capital of Oman, after meeting with Pakistani leaders in Islamabad.
After leaving Islamabad, Minister Araghchi emphasized that he "shared Iran's position regarding a practical and feasible framework to permanently end the war against Iran" with Pakistan, adding that "we have to see if the U.S. actually has a serious will to advance diplomacy."
President Trump left the possibility of negotiations open, stating, "If they want to negotiate, all they have to do is call." He also added that Iran made a new proposal after the cancellation of the negotiations.
Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency reported that Minister Araghchi would return to Pakistan after visiting Oman. This suggests that there is a lot of exchange of opinions behind the scenes.
Alex Shahidi, Co-Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Evoke, an asset management firm, warned that negative news related to the Strait of Hormuz could shake the market again, predicting, "Overall, downside risks appear greater than upside."
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)
Aside from the possibility of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, there are many important events this week. First, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be held on the 29th of this month.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch, the federal funds rate (FFR) futures market is pricing in a 99.0% probability that the policy rate will be frozen until April.
The key is the extent to which a consensus on interest rate hikes has formed among the committee members.
The March FOMC minutes showed that "some" participants stated there was "strong" justification for "two-sided" language in the FOMC statement regarding future rate decisions, reflecting the "possibility that an upward adjustment to the target range for the FFR would be appropriate if inflation remained above target."
In the January meeting, only "several" participants made claims to this effect. In FOMC minutes drafting conventions, "several" is a quantitative expression just below "some."
If these views gain more consensus among committee members at this meeting, expectations for interest rate cuts will recede, likely acting as a bearish factor for the stock market.
The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, due on the 30th, is also considered a key indicator. In particular, attention is focused on the PCE price index, which the Fed uses as its benchmark inflation measure. The core PCE price index, excluding volatile food and energy, is expected to have risen by 0.3% compared to the previous month.
The preliminary estimate for the U.S. first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, also released on the same day, is important. The U.S. releases GDP results a total of three times: preliminary, revised, and final. The first quarter partially overlaps with the timing of the Iran war. However, it is considered unlikely to be fully reflected yet. The consensus is for an annualized growth of 2.1% compared to the previous quarter.
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Trader
Investors will also face the earnings announcements of the giant technology companies belonging to the Magnificent Seven (M7).
On the 29th, when the FOMC is held, Meta Platforms (Facebook's parent company), Amazon.com, Microsoft, and Alphabet (Google's parent company) will all release their earnings. A day later, Apple will disclose its performance. This means five out of the M7 will announce their earnings.
In addition, earnings announcements from companies such as Coca-Cola (28th), Qualcomm (29th), and SanDisk, Eli Lilly, and Caterpillar (30th) are also drawing attention.
In particular, if the M7 companies deliver disappointing results relative to their massive capital expenditures, investor sentiment in the market could quickly deteriorate. In Microsoft's case, its stock price plummeted when its October-December earnings last year (Q2 FY2026) failed to meet market expectations. The performance of Alphabet and Amazon's cloud businesses is also expected to determine the direction of their stock prices.
The recent strong performance of the stock market, even amidst the Middle East conflict, is ultimately due to 'earnings expectations'. If these expectations are even slightly unmet by investors, the market is highly likely to be shaken immediately.
Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, a brokerage firm, stated, "There has been a significant divergence between war-related headlines and actual market movements," adding, "Ultimately, it is large technology stocks that can bridge that gap and support the market's bottom." He explained that the recent bull market was also "substantially driven by the rebound of technology stocks, especially the so-called M7."
Seasonally, investors enter a period where stock market returns are relatively sluggish, as the adage "sell in May and go away" suggests. According to asset management firm Fidelity, traditionally, returns from May to October average around 2% over six months. This is only one-third of the 7% seen from November to April.
CIO Shahidi suggested, "If positions are overly concentrated in a specific sector and have experienced a significant rebound since the low point, now might be a good opportunity to rebalance positions and move to a more diversified asset allocation."
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Trader
◇ Key Schedule and Speeches
- April 27
Company Earnings Announcements: Nucor, Verizon Communications, Domino's Pizza
- April 28
February Case-Shiller Home Price Index
April Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index
Company Earnings Announcements: T-Mobile, Starbucks, Visa, Invesco, Coca-Cola, Kimberly-Clark, General Motors, UPS, Hilton Worldwide, Cisco
- April 29
March Durable Goods Orders
March Housing Starts
March Building Permits
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
Jerome Powell Federal Reserve (Fed) Press Conference
Company Earnings Announcements: Meta Platforms, Amazon.com, Microsoft, Alphabet, Qualcomm, Ford, eBay, Carvana, Yum! Brands, General Dynamics, Phillips 66, Biogen
- April 30
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rate Preliminary Estimate
Company Earnings Announcements: Apple, Clorox, SanDisk, T. Rowe Price, ConocoPhillips, Eli Lilly, Merck, Caterpillar, Mastercard
- May 1
April U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
Company Earnings Announcements: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Moderna, Estée Lauder
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