Bitcoin (BTC) to 'Plunge Further' if US Market Structure Bill Fails

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image

A warning has been issued that the value of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), could fall further if the US cryptocurrency market structure bill fails to pass Congress. However, a contrasting view also emerged, suggesting that legislative failure could accelerate policy support from US regulatory agencies.

According to crypto media outlet Cointelegraph on August 3 (local time), asset management firm Bernstein analyzed that the likelihood of the bill passing the US Senate is decreasing. The Senate is scheduled to enter its summer recess at the end of this week. Bernstein warned that if the bill is not passed, the market could react negatively immediately.

Bernstein analysts predicted, “From a tactical perspective, the cryptocurrency market will form a bottom between the end of Q3 and early Q4 and show upward momentum ahead of the midterm elections.” The analysis suggests that if the bill's passage fails, Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market could first experience further decline before establishing a basis for a rebound.

Legislative failure does not necessarily lead only to an expansion of regulatory vacuum. Bernstein predicted that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might expedite the establishment of regulations under the banner of Project Crypto. This could involve specifying token classification standards and decentralized finance rules, and also promoting a token issuance system that exempts certain tokens from securities regulations for a specified period.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the US crypto market structure bill passing by 2026 has fallen to 31%. This probability has decreased by 7 percentage points over the past week and by 9 percentage points over the past month. Approximately $3.7 million has been invested in the related market.

The White House is reviewing a bipartisan compromise related to ethics regulations for public officials. This bill aims to establish the first regulatory framework for the US digital asset market, but the banking sector has opposed provisions allowing crypto firms to offer stablecoin yields. Galaxy Digital lowered the bill's chance of passing this year to 50% on June 26, stating that the Senate lacks sufficient time for processing.

[Article Key Summary]

-Bernstein warned that if the US cryptocurrency market structure bill fails, the value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could fall further.

-The probability of the bill passing by 2026 has dropped to 31% on Polymarket, with approximately $3.7 million invested in the related market.

-There is also a prediction that after legislative failure, the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission could expedite the establishment of digital asset regulations.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*