to leave a comment.
▲ Bitcoin (BTC)
An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (Bitcoin, BTC) could confirm a bear market bottom if it holds $63,000 in August. Treasury yields and selling pressure from the mining industry were cited as variables that could hinder a rebound.
According to CoinTelegraph, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on August 3 (local time), Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated that Bitcoin did not surpass the technical bottom confirmation criteria in its July monthly candle. He analyzed that if the August monthly candle closes near $63,000, several market cycle indicators could turn bullish.
10x Research maintained a bullish stance on Bitcoin. However, they plan to shift to a neutral position if key support levels and moving averages break down. While they presented a scenario where the Federal Reserve (Fed) freezes interest rates as their base forecast, they warned that if the US 10-year Treasury yield rises further, the possibility of a September rate hike could increase. The Iran conflict was also identified as an unpredictable risk factor.
The mining industry's business diversification could also increase selling pressure. 10x Research predicted that approximately 100,000 BTC could be sold as some mining companies shift to artificial intelligence businesses. The possibility of additional supply from Bitcoin-holding companies liquidating their positions was also raised. However, they assessed that the greater risk to the market is the macroeconomic environment.
Other indicators suggesting that Bitcoin's bottom is approaching have also been observed. K33 stated that over half of Bitcoin's supply in July was in a loss state. In 2017, 2018, and 2022, when the same criteria were met, a bottom formed within 13 to 31 days. Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, also evaluated that the balance of long-term holders reaching an all-time high of 14.7 million BTC is a signal of an approaching bottom.
[Key Article Summary]
-10x Research analyzed that Bitcoin could confirm a bear market bottom if its August monthly candle holds above $63,000.
-Rising US Treasury yields, the possibility of a September rate hike, and selling pressure of 100,000 BTC from the mining industry were identified as major risks.
-K33 stated that in the past, after more than half of Bitcoin's supply was in a loss state, a bottom formed within 13 to 31 days.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
Newsletter
Get key news delivered to your email every morning
to leave a comment.