Ki Young Ju, CEO: "Bitcoin hasn't reached the starting point of a bull market yet"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

On-chain analysis suggests that the Bitcoin (BTC) bull market has not yet fully begun. Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, stated that the Bitcoin Bull Score Index remains in a neutral zone, adding, “When the real Bitcoin bull market begins, all signals will be very clear.”

NewsBTC reported on May 22 (local time) that Ki Young Ju diagnosed via X (formerly Twitter) that indicators related to the Bitcoin bull market have not yet turned on. The Bull Score Index is an indicator that combines several on-chain metrics into a single score to assess the market phase of the Bitcoin network. This index utilizes 10 indicators, including Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score (MVRV Z-Score), trader realized price, and stablecoin liquidity.

The Bull Score Index is calculated by multiplying the number of indicators showing bullish signals by 10. A score exceeding 60 means that more than 6 indicators point to a positive market environment, suggesting that Bitcoin may have entered a bull market phase. Conversely, if it falls below 40, it is interpreted that multiple indicators are pointing to a bearish trend.

According to the chart shared by Ki Young Ju, the Bull Score Index remained in the red zone during Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. This means that, based on this indicator, the market was in a bearish phase. Although the index has recently recovered and partially entered the neutral zone between 40 and 60, Ki Young Ju believes it is difficult to conclude that the bull market has returned based solely on this change. He stated, “We are not there yet.”

Separate changes have been observed in the movements of long-term holders. Analyst James Van Straten reported that the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (those holding for more than 155 days) has recently broken out of a downward trend. He suggested that the increase in long-term holder supply could signify the end of a 2.5-year sideways phase for the indicator, stating, “This cohort controls the market, and because of this, the 4-year cycle is over.”

Bitcoin has fallen by more than 4% in the past week. Although the Bull Score Index has recovered to the neutral zone, bullish signals have not sufficiently turned on, and changes in long-term holder supply have emerged as a separate variable. As a result, the market has entered a phase of observing further changes in key on-chain indicators rather than concluding the resumption of a bull market.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*