"Explodes to $2.80 in H2" Canary CEO Reveals Terrifying Reversal Scenario for XRP ETF

▲ XRP ETF/ChatGPT generated image ©

Even amidst the short-term risk-off sentiment (avoidance of risky assets) in the cryptocurrency market, institutional investors' capital inflow into the XRP (Ripple) spot ETF segment has finally surpassed a cumulative $1.39 billion, establishing a strong mid-to-long-term support line. With the XRPI ETF boasting overwhelming liquidity in terms of trading volume and the XRPR ETF showing somewhat lower participation, trading in parallel with price differences during the day, this robust capital absorption trend is expected to be a key driver for a future market rebound.

According to the investment media TradingNews on May 22 (local time), XRPI and XRPR, two representative ETF products listed on the U.S. stock market, closed their intraday trading at $7.76 and $11.32, respectively. On that day, XRPI's trading volume recorded 300,858 shares, while XRPR's was only 24,036 shares, observing a clear liquidity asymmetry of approximately 12.5 times between the two assets. As a result, XRPI is being evaluated as a more efficient investment tool for institutional investors, family offices, and other asset allocators who execute large-scale funds, due to its smaller bid-ask spread and lower execution errors.

Currently, the total assets under management (AUM) of the entire XRP ETF Complex amount to approximately $1.15 billion, with a net inflow of $60 million in the previous week, the largest weekly amount since 2026. With Bitwise XRP ETF leading the market with an AUM of $345 million, followed by Canary Capital's XRPC, the holdings of the five listed spot ETFs now account for 1.34% of the total XRP supply. Although the spot price is consolidating short-term at around $1.36, below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $1.41 and the 200-day EMA of $1.70, due to the stagnation of the 50-day Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI), buying pressure remains stronger than ever.

Positive reversal signals are also being detected in on-chain data and the derivatives market. Whale investors accumulated an additional 71 million XRP in the past week alone, increasing their total holdings to 3.79 billion, while Binance's XRP exchange holdings dropped to 2.74 billion, demonstrating the dynamic of reduced circulating supply due to long-term holding conversion. Furthermore, the cumulative trading volume of XRP futures on the U.S. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) surpassed $630 billion within one year of its launch, and open interest rebuilt to $310 million, with futures funding rates turning positive, increasing the possibility of a short squeeze (buying pressure occurring to liquidate or cover short positions).

In addition, the XRPL v3.1.3 upgrade, a key mainnet performance improvement scheduled for May 27, is poised as a catalyst to boost network reliability and facilitate institutional entry. Financial experts, including Matt Hogan, CEO of Canary Capital, predict that as macroeconomic pressures subside, the passage of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, becomes visible, and real-world asset tokenization gains momentum, ETF inflows could surge by over 30% from the second half of this year, causing the XRP price to more than double to $2.80. Therefore, experts suggest that amidst short-term price pressure, rather than aggressive chase buying, a strategy of phased accumulation based on the $1.35 support level is effective, while gradually expanding positions by confirming the recapture of the $1.40 level, which would be a clear signal of a trend reversal.

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