Dogecoin, 58,400% surge signal appears...Bottom theory rapidly emerges as Fisher Transform turns bullish

▲ Dogecoin (DOGE)

Dogecoin's (Dogecoin, DOGE) monthly Fisher Transform indicator has turned bullish again, reigniting a long-term bottom signal that appeared just before past major rallies.

NewsBTC reported on May 14 (local time), citing analysis from trader Cantonese Cat, that Dogecoin's monthly Fisher Transform indicator has turned bullish. According to the chart published by Cantonese Cat on X (formerly Twitter), Dogecoin stayed around $0.1146 after several months of decline since its 2024 high, and the Fisher line turned upward from a deeply negative territory.

The Fisher Transform is a technical indicator that converts price movements to be closer to a normal distribution, capturing potential reversals or significant price change possibilities. Generally, when the Fisher line crosses above the signal line after an oversold period, it is interpreted as a bullish reversal. However, as this signal appears on a monthly chart, it is more of a slow trend reversal indicator than a short-term buy signal. Cantonese Cat stated, “It could consolidate for longer, but it depends on how impulsively liquidity moves,” adding, “Even if it's slow, it's okay if it has bottomed out.”

Past cases lend weight to cautious bullish sentiment. In 2019, when a similar macro reversal signal appeared, Dogecoin closed around $0.0018 in early February and then rose to $0.00437 by the end of that year. This was a rebound of approximately 143% from the low, but it wasn't the explosive surge that the market often envisions. It was more of a recovery from a prolonged suppressed price level.

The 2020 signal was much stronger. Dogecoin fell to $0.00125 in mid-March 2020, following a market-wide liquidation triggered by COVID-19, and then reached an all-time high of $0.7316 on May 8, 2021. The increase from the March 2020 low to the May 2021 high was approximately 58,400%, over a period of about 14 months. The key takeaway is that the bottom signal appeared much earlier than the peak of speculative frenzy.

The 2022 cycle shows a similar structure. Dogecoin formed a bottom at $0.04908 on June 18, 2022, and subsequently rose to $0.4825 by December 2024. This represents an increase of approximately 883% from the low over about 2 years and 6 months. While there was a rebound in late 2022 within this period, the overall recovery was closer to an accumulative structure that lasted longer than a one-month surge.

The current signal is evaluated as being closer to a bottom formation phase rather than a definitive breakout. NewsBTC reported that this bullish turn in the Fisher Transform should be viewed as a momentum reset signal, not a price target. Past bullish turns also did not prevent long-term sideways movement, and Dogecoin's major rallies occurred when a technical bottom met sufficient liquidity and risk appetite to translate into sustained demand.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*