Bitcoin Whales Quietly Sell 30,000 BTC in a Distributed Manner...Has the Peak Signal Already Passed?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Whale / AI Generated Image

An analysis has emerged suggesting that Bitcoin (BTC)'s previous market peak was not formed by clear crash signals but by the sophisticated, distributed selling of large holders. It is explained that at a time when bullish conviction dominated the market, whale wallets quietly moved their holdings to exchanges, and this flow appeared like normal trading activity, thus bypassing investors' vigilance.

NewsBTC reported on May 14 (local time), citing analysis from ForeDex, that last year's Bitcoin market peak did not manifest as overt mass selling signals like in past cycles. ForeDex explained that while market participants were engrossed in optimism and strong conviction, a whale moved approximately 30,000 BTC to exchanges over 10 days via Galaxy Digital, but the majority of investors failed to recognize the significance of this capital flow.

According to ForeDex, at past market peaks, large volumes ranging from thousands to 10,000 BTC flowed into major exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, and Gemini as single transactions, making them relatively easy to detect. However, after the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the market structure and trading methods became more sophisticated, leading to large volumes being divided and distributed across multiple exchanges and in smaller units. This process has also led to a decrease in the reliability of existing indicators such as exchange-specific selling premiums and price differences between Coinbase and Binance.

Regarding Bitcoin's short-term trend, signs of weakening have also been raised. Cryptocurrency analyst Kaz diagnosed that Bitcoin is forming lower highs after being pushed back from the $82,000 resistance level, and while open interest is sharply increasing, perpetual futures and spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) are declining. He observed that bullish position investors have already started to be pushed out of the market, and remaining long liquidation volumes on the downside could act as additional downward pressure.

Kaz explained that Bitcoin is currently re-testing the $80,000 level, and the strongest open interest-based bearish positioning is confirmed in this range. He analyzed that if Bitcoin holds $80,000 and the Cumulative Volume Delta turns upward, a short squeeze towards the $82,000 resistance level could occur. Conversely, if $80,000 breaks and internal supply-demand weakness continues, a downward trend sweeping out low liquidity could emerge, potentially leading to a re-test of weak order zones.

According to the report, Bitcoin was trading at $80,668 on the daily chart at the time of writing. This analysis focused on how whale-distributed selling in the Bitcoin market has evolved to be harder to identify than in the past, and how short-term derivatives indicators are also increasing bearish pressure.

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