XRP, Undervalued Signal Emerged, But Why Can't It Break $1.50?

▲ XRP / ChatGPT generated image ©

Despite signals of undervaluation, XRP (Ripple) has repeatedly failed to break the $1.50 mark, leading to a deepening wait-and-see attitude in the market. However, an analysis suggests that on-chain data still maintains signals indicating a potential bottom.

According to investment specialized media FXStreet on May 14 (local time), XRP is currently trading above the short-term support level of $1.42 but has fallen by approximately 5% from its recent monthly high of $1.51. The media diagnosed that risk aversion sentiment and slowing institutional demand are weakening XRP's rebound momentum.

On-chain data once again highlighted the possibility of XRP being undervalued. According to Glassnode, XRP's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-score recently dropped to 0.04, remaining below its realized value. The MVRV Z-score is an indicator that analyzes whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market capitalization and realized value. FXStreet explained that if XRP's market capitalization is lower than its realized value, it suggests a potential market bottom. Indeed, XRP's MVRV Z-score has consistently moved below its fair value since February, indicating a potentially undervalued state.

However, no clear upward momentum has been observed in the ETF market. The US XRP spot ETF recorded a flat trend today with no new capital inflows. According to SoSoValue data, the cumulative net inflow for XRP spot ETFs remained at approximately $1.36 billion, but the total net asset value slightly decreased from $1.16 billion the previous day to $1.14 billion. FXStreet analyzed that institutional investment flows have somewhat slowed recently.

Technically, XRP is currently moving between its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.42 and its 100-day EMA of $1.49, maintaining a neutral trend. However, the 200-day EMA at $1.70 still acts as a key resistance forming a long-term bearish structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recorded a level of 53 on a daily basis, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram also remained slightly positive, indicating limited upward momentum.

FXStreet presented $1.45 and $1.49 as upper resistance levels for XRP, followed by a downward trendline at $1.50. Conversely, on the downside, the 50-day EMA at $1.42 and the Parabolic SAR at $1.40 were analyzed as key support zones. The media warned that if XRP falls below this support zone, additional downward pressure could intensify.

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