to leave a comment.
▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image ©
The global virtual asset market has entered a period of extreme caution and observation, as the second round of US-Iran peace talks ended in vain, and a series of critical events that will determine the direction of benchmark interest rates are approaching. With macroeconomic uncertainty at its peak, investors are refraining from premature betting and maintaining a thorough wait-and-see stance.
According to CoinMarketCap, a cryptocurrency market data aggregator, as of 8:38 AM KST on the 26th, the global virtual asset market capitalization recorded $2.59 trillion, a 0.45% decrease from the previous day. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, was trading at $77,530.15, down 0.04% from 24 hours ago, engaging in a tedious tug-of-war around the $77,000 mark. Ethereum rose 0.03% to $2,316.09, XRP (Ripple) fell 1.07% to $1.42, and Solana dropped 0.64% to $85.91. Most of the top market capitalization coins showed narrow fluctuations of around 1% and were holding their breath. The Fear & Greed Index, which indicates market sentiment, pointed to 44 (Neutral).
The main reasons for this tedious sideways market are the re-ignition of geopolitical risks and caution regarding macroeconomic indicator announcements. The second round of US-Iran negotiations, which had garnered expectations over the weekend, broke down due to the absence of President Donald Trump's Middle East envoy, leading to a renewed escalation of tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
Furthermore, the regular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scheduled for the 29th (US Eastern Time) is casting a heavy cloud over the market. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of an interest rate freeze in April is as high as 99%, suggesting no change in rates. However, the market is highly sensitive to hawkish (pro-monetary tightening) remarks from Fed officials that might hint at future interest rate hikes. The US March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, to be announced consecutively on the 30th, are also considered key indicators for confirming inflationary pressures.
Experts diagnose that the earnings announcements of the so-called 'Magnificent 7 (M7)' — the giant tech companies leading the New York stock market this week — are the most powerful variables that will determine the short-term direction of the virtual asset market. On the 29th, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, followed by Apple on the 30th, will release earnings reports for five of the M7 companies.
An industry insider warned, "The reason the New York stock market and the virtual asset market have not collapsed recently despite geopolitical headwinds is due to expectations for solid earnings from large tech stocks. If M7 companies deliver results that fall short of market expectations compared to their massive capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence (AI), investor sentiment could rapidly freeze, leading to a fierce selling storm across risk assets, including Bitcoin." Conversely, if they report earnings surprises that exceed expectations, there is also a possibility that the virtual asset market could ride the rally of the New York stock market, breaking through downward pressure and attempting a strong rebound.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
Newsletter
Get key news delivered to your email every morning
to leave a comment.