Veteran Analyst: "Bitcoin Now Ignores the 4-Year Cycle Theory and Surges"

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An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a new market phase, moving beyond its historical 4-year cycle theory and now driven by institutional demand and macroeconomic liquidity.

According to NewsBTC on April 23 (local time), Matt Crosby, Senior Analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, stated that the traditional Bitcoin cycles that traders rely on may no longer be relevant to the market. Crosby diagnosed, "Currently, over 20 million BTC have been issued, meaning more than 95% of the total supply has been released," adding, "The impact of halving on the market has decreased compared to the past."

Crosby criticized investment strategies that cling to past patterns and wait for opportune times to buy the dip. He emphasized that large-scale buyers, such as Strategy, are accumulating over 1,000 BTC per day, which is 2 to 3 times Bitcoin's daily issuance. He also analyzed that institutional demand, on a different scale from previous cycles, is changing the market structure, with approximately $750 million worth of funds flowing in daily through spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The core of the analysis lies in the correlation with global liquidity rather than dollar-denominated prices. Crosby diagnosed that liquidity expansion and contraction are the dominant factors in price fluctuations, based on the high correlation between Bitcoin and global M2 liquidity. In particular, he suggested the possibility that Bitcoin, when compared to the value of gold, might have already peaked in late 2024 and undergone a relative bear market for over a year, presenting this as evidence that the existing 4-year cycle theory is collapsing.

On-chain indicators also suggest that Bitcoin has entered an undervalued zone. Crosby noted that key metrics, such as Coin Days Destroyed and Value Days Destroyed, accurately pinpointed historical highs and accumulation zones in the past, leading him to assess that Bitcoin has recently re-entered an attractive zone. Simultaneously, despite the US Consumer Sentiment Index hitting an all-time low in April, he cited improving manufacturing outlook and liquidity conditions as positive signals.

The crypto asset market has now entered a phase where its direction is determined by actual capital flows and institutional positioning, rather than mere calendar dates. Senior Analyst Crosby advised that the breakdown of the 4-year cycle is inevitable, and attention should be paid to the influx of new liquidity into the system. Investors are moving away from past formulas and focusing on understanding the core drivers of the changed market.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*