Bitcoin, Is Breaking $78,000 a Trap?...Warning of 30% Plunge

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated

Bitcoin (BTC) recently succeeded in rebounding, breaking above $78,000. However, a strong warning has been issued, based on past chart patterns, that the price could plummet vertically to $50,000.

Crypto-specialized media NewsBTC reported on April 23 (local time), citing an analysis by market expert Maxi Trades, that Bitcoin is facing a massive correction of over 30%. Trades emphasized that Bitcoin has been consolidating within a specific range for the past two and a half months, and such long-term sideways movement within a box range has always been followed by sharp volatility. Historical data analysis revealed that whenever the consolidation period ranged between 64 and 114 days, a price breakout, either upward or downward, occurred.

Looking at past cases, during the first period when Bitcoin consolidated for 64 days, it recorded a 14% increase. However, during the second period, which saw 114 days of consolidation within a box range, it plummeted by approximately 27%, and in the third period, after 77 days of sideways movement, a price crash of 33% occurred. Trades analyzed that the current market situation is very similar to the pattern observed just before past massive crashes. He particularly pointed out that despite the ongoing decline from the high of $126,000 recorded in October 2025, no true bottom signal has yet been detected.

Trades diagnosed that the market has not yet reached the final capitulation phase, which is the sell-off stage. Accordingly, he predicted that the next price breakout is very likely to be downwards, with a true bottom forming around $50,000. This implies a further decline of over 36% from the current price level above $78,000. He explained that while investors are euphoric about the rebound, the market is, in fact, preparing for a brutal correction.

Bitcoin's price is currently at a critical juncture. The longer the consolidation period, the more energy accumulates, and the impact of a breakout becomes more powerful. Trades added that if the same pattern from previous cycles repeats, there might still be time before a full-blown crash occurs. It is time to heed the historical warnings drawn by the charts rather than premature optimism.

As uncertainty in the virtual asset market grows, investor sentiment indicators are also fluctuating. Buying pressure aiming to maintain the $78,000 level is clashing intensely with selling pressure predicting a correction down to $50,000. If a crash of over 30%, as predicted by Trades, materializes, a massive shockwave across the entire market will be unavoidable. Whether Bitcoin's future trajectory marks the beginning of a true bull run or a huge trap will be determined by the direction of the box range breakout.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*