Bitcoin Aims to Settle at $80,000...Supply Locked, Institutions and Nations Begin to Sweep Up

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image

Bitcoin is attempting to break past $79,000 and is aiming to settle above the 20-week moving average, a key weekly indicator. This, combined with an influx of institutional funds and expanding national adoption, suggests a deepening supply squeeze.

Dan Gambardello, host of the cryptocurrency YouTube channel Crypto Capital Venture, defined the current market as a turning point between bull and bear markets in a video released on April 22 (local time). Gambardello diagnosed that Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to recover its 20-week moving average on the weekly chart, and if it breaks through this level, it could fully escape the effects of the 2022 bear market. Ethereum (ETH) is moving near the $2,500 resistance level, testing the possibility of a broader altcoin market rebound.

Increased demand from institutions and nations is directly pressuring the supply structure. Strategy, led by Chairman Michael Saylor, has continued to accumulate Bitcoin, expanding its holdings, while Vanguard has increased its stake in Strategy, thereby expanding its indirect Bitcoin exposure. Russia has passed legislation to use virtual assets as a trade settlement method amidst sanctions, stimulating inter-state competition.

The policy environment is also moving in a direction that stimulates market expectations. Kevin Warsh, a Federal Reserve chairman nominee by Donald Trump, mentioned that virtual assets are part of the U.S. financial system, hinting at their potential inclusion in the mainstream system. Furthermore, the change in leadership at the Securities and Exchange Commission and the rise of pro-crypto figures are contributing factors to expectations of reduced regulatory uncertainty.

Within the market, there is a clear trend of reducing circulating supply. Bitmine staked approximately $141 million worth of Ethereum, locking up supply, which resulted in 4.12% of the total supply exiting the market. Saylor stated his intention to accumulate Bitcoin in an amount exceeding the available sellable supply, demonstrating his commitment to absorbing supply.

The rise in Bitcoin dominance to around 60.5% is interpreted as a pattern similar to past liquidity expansion phases. Gambardello emphasized that whether this week's candle closes above the 20-week moving average is a key variable determining the future direction of the market. With technical breakout attempts and changes in the macroeconomic environment converging simultaneously, the market is poised to enter its next phase.

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