Taking a breather despite $276 million inflow... Ethereum reaches a major turning point

▲ Ethereum (ETH) ©

Although Ethereum has entered a consolidation phase around the $2,300 mark, the market's attention is already shifting to the next turning point. If it breaks through $2,360, it could gain momentum up to $2,465, but if $2,250 collapses, the possibility of retesting $2,150 also increases.

According to TradingNews, an investment media outlet, on April 21 (local time), Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $2,305, maintaining a compressed sideways trend centered around the $2,300 mark. The intraday high was $2,322, and the low was in the $2,250s. While Bitcoin (BTC) recovered the $76,000 mark, Ethereum also joined the weekly rebound, but its direction has not yet fully opened up.

The key variable in this trend is the simultaneous clash of supply/demand and negative news. Ethereum spot ETFs saw an inflow of $276 million in the past week, and BitMine (BMNR) reportedly acquired an additional 100,000 ETH, holding a total of 4.87 million ETH. This amount is close to approximately 4% of the total circulating supply. On the other hand, 116,500 rsETH were leaked due to the KelpDAO bridge hack, and Aave V3 was assessed to be exposed to potential bad debt risk of up to $230 million. Although Arbitrum has locked up over 30,000 stolen ETH, DeFi security concerns have resurfaced in the market.

Looking at the chart, the baseline is relatively clear. The first resistance level, based on the timeframe, is $2,360, which coincides with a 50% retracement of the previous decline. If this line is surpassed with significant trading volume, the path opens up to $2,385, $2,420, and then $2,465 and $2,500. Conversely, on the downside, $2,290 is the first support, and $2,250 is the key support line. If it falls below this, $2,200, and further down, $2,150 and $2,120 are mentioned as the next defense lines. On a daily chart basis, it is above the 20-day moving average of $2,230 and the 50-day moving average of $2,143, indicating short-term strength, but the gap with the 200-day moving average of $2,845 remains wide.

In terms of supply and demand alone, the long-term outlook is not bad. Approximately one-third of the total circulating supply is locked in staking, and the EIP-1559 fee burning mechanism also acts as a supply reduction pressure. Furthermore, expectations for an enhanced validator structure and improved Layer 2 costs in the pre-Pusaka upgrade phase remain. However, what is shaking the market right now are macro variables. With the US-Iran ceasefire deadline, Federal Reserve appointments and interest rate path, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) results at the end of this month overlapping, the $2,290-$2,360 range is effectively seen as a directional vacuum for short-term traders.

Ultimately, this week for Ethereum is a battle of whether it will hold $2,250 and attempt an upward breakout, or if it will be pressured by the aftermath of hacks and macro uncertainties, leading it to look downwards again. The media interpreted the current range as 'hold,' suggesting a buy upon an upward break of $2,360 and defensive action if it falls below $2,250. The market is quiet now, but once a direction is set, movements could be faster than expected.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*