US-Iran Tensions Reignite! Bitcoin's Ascent Halted

▲ US, Iran, Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image ©

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade sideways below $77,000, unable to find direction. Analysts suggest that risk asset investment sentiment has not recovered as peace talks between the US and Iran continue to face difficulties.

According to the investment media FXStreet on May 26 (local time), Bitcoin is currently showing limited movement around its 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), staying below $77,000. The market assesses that risk asset preference is being suppressed due to the ongoing uncertainty in negotiations between the US and Iran.

Market anxiety intensified today with reports that US-Iran peace talks are still far from a "final agreement." On the same day, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it had identified hostile aircraft entering its airspace and intercepted an MQ-9 drone. This response came after the US military carried out "self-defense airstrikes" the previous day against missile launchers and vessels attempting to lay mines in southern Iran. Compounding this, conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz and issues with Iran's nuclear program are further escalating market concerns about geopolitical risks.

On-chain data also confirmed a wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Glassnode analyzed in a recent report that the number of daily active Bitcoin addresses and entity-adjusted transfer volume has decreased. This indicates a slowdown in investor participation and network activity. However, Glassnode explained that the market's liquidity structure itself remains relatively stable, and with a strengthening trend towards long-term holding rather than speculative trading, the market has now entered a 'sideways consolidation phase within a correction'.

On the other hand, profitability indicators are showing increased pressure. According to Glassnode, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio has sharply declined, and the magnitude of realized losses has begun to surpass realized gains. This is interpreted as a signal that investor sentiment is becoming increasingly cautious and leaning towards bearishness. Glassnode diagnosed the current market as being in a state of reduced activity, cautious investor sentiment, and limited risk appetite.

Technically, Bitcoin has yet to generate clear signs of a rebound. Bitcoin is currently barely holding above its 50-day EMA of $76,792 and its 100-day EMA of $76,881, but remains below its 200-day EMA of $81,551. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 46, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in negative territory, suggesting further downward pressure. The market is eyeing $78,962 and $81,551 as key resistance levels, while the $74,487 and $71,430 range is noted as crucial support below.

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