Polymarket: "XRP, 14% Chance of All-Time High"...Hopes of Breaking $3.84 'Shattered'

▲ XRP

Investor expectations have significantly cooled compared to the beginning of the year, as the Polymarket betting market has lowered the probability of XRP reaching a new all-time high by year-end.

According to the financial media outlet Benzinga on May 26 (local time), Polymarket, a Polygon (POL)-based prediction market, reflected a 14% chance of XRP surpassing its all-time high of $3.84, recorded in January 2018, by the end of this year. This probability is significantly lower than the 41% at the beginning of the year.

The probability of XRP reaching a new all-time high by September 30 fell from 35% at the beginning of the year to 4%. Over $260,000 was bet on this outcome, with the structure confirming 'yes' if the final high price on a specific date in Binance's XRP/USDT 1-minute chart exceeds all previous 1-minute highs for the same trading pair.

The weakening market expectation coincided with a slowdown in XRP-related investment sentiment. On-chain analytics firm Santiment stated that the ratio of positive to negative comments for XRP has dropped to 1.1 positive comments for every negative comment. Santiment explained, “When traders are excessively fearful across social media, many weak hands have already sold, reducing selling pressure and potentially creating conditions for a rebound.”

Technical indicators also failed to show clear bullish signals. According to TradingView, XRP's Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicated a sell signal, while the Bull Bear Power indicator, which measures buyer and seller strength, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) were presented as neutral. Benzinga reported that XRP has fallen by 28.30% since the beginning of the year.

Polymarket's lowered probabilities, Santiment's subdued investor sentiment, and the MACD's sell signal all indicate that expectations for XRP to re-challenge its all-time high have significantly weakened compared to the beginning of the year.

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