Bloomberg has pointed out that the final decision-making power determining the fate of Polymarket prediction market bets is concentrated in the hands of a few whales. In the UMA oracle voting that adjudicates Polymarket disputes, it was found that just 9 wallets account for half of the total voting power. Among more than 6,400 addresses that participated in voting over the past three years, these 9 wallets have sided with the winning party in almost all disputes, effectively exercising decisive power. In April 2026 alone, approximately 230 contracts with a transaction value exceeding $1 billion went through the dispute resolution process, and all these outcomes were swayed by the minority's share. UMA's dispute resolution mechanism is structured so that voters are rewarded for voting for what they expect the majority to vote for, rather than for the truth. If large whales have placed significant bets on a particular outcome and also monopolize voting power, a conflict of interest arises where they can steer decisions in their favor. Risk Labs, which operates Polymarket and UMA, had previously promised to improve governance processes, but according to Bloomberg, related plans are currently on indefinite hold.
