Bitcoin, Dangerous Rally Without Spot Buying... "Demand -147,000 BTC, Can We Trust It?"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin's (BTC) apparent demand has fallen to its weakest level since 2026, raising red flags about the sustainability of its price rebound. Although prices have recently shown a recovery trend, analysis suggests that spot buying is not supporting it, and the rally relies on interest in derivatives.

According to TheCryptoBasic on May 25 (local time), Bitcoin recovered approximately 4% to $77,020 after falling to $74,156 last week. The upward trend continued this week, reaching $77,400, but the sustainability of the upward movement has become uncertain as spot demand fails to support the rebound.

According to a chart shared by Darkfost, a CryptoQuant certified author, Bitcoin's apparent demand has dropped to approximately -147,000 BTC. This is the most negative figure since December 2025. This indicator measures the difference between newly issued Bitcoin and the supply that has not moved for over a year. It serves as a gauge of whether long-term holders' accumulation is sufficient to absorb new supply entering the market.

The deterioration of the demand indicator has been evident in recent weeks. TheCryptoBasic reported that Bitcoin's apparent demand largely remained positive for most of 2025 but sharply turned negative from late 2025. This year, demand has continued to stay in negative territory, and the current level is the weakest since the beginning of the year.

The problem is that the price trend and demand indicators are diverging. Bitcoin pulled back from $82,800 earlier this month but is up 1.6% for the month. It rose 11.8% in April. However, Darkfost pointed out that the recent recovery might not have stemmed from strong spot buying activity.

Darkfost believes that while futures activity can support price movements in the short term, leverage-based momentum alone is insufficient for a sustained rally. He explained that stronger participation from spot buyers is needed to create a durable upward trend.

The slowdown in demand also indicates overall market caution. TheCryptoBasic reported that environments where apparent demand falls deep into negative territory have historically coincided with periods of increased fear and weak investor sentiment. However, similar conditions have also been observed near long-term turning points in previous cycles. Analysis suggests that when demand sharply contracts and investor sentiment becomes extremely weak, Bitcoin begins to form a bottom for future recovery.

A separate indicator from Alphractal also mentioned the possibility of a short-term rebound. The holder sentiment index, which compares conviction across holder cohorts, recorded 0.82. Alphractal stated that the last time similar conditions appeared, Bitcoin rose 67% over 90 days. Alphractal reported, "The Crypto Fear & Greed Index points to 28. Retail investors are in a panic. Meanwhile, the Whale-to-Retail Delta has recorded its largest positive divergence since November 2024."

Alphractal also mentioned that Strategy added 24,869 BTC, worth $2.01 billion, at an average of $80,985 last week. Amid concerns over weakening spot demand and reliance on derivatives, indicators for long-term holders and large investors have emerged as key variables that will determine the market's next direction.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*