"57% Plunge from All-Time High"...What is the key catalyst to lead Ethereum's recapture of $4,000 by year-end?

▲ Ethereum (ETH)/ChatGPT generated image

Amidst the overall bearish trend in the virtual asset market, certain prominent virtual assets are seeking price rebounds, driven by technical upgrades and institutional fund inflows.

According to the U.S. financial media outlet 24/7 Wall St. on May 24 (local time), Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at approximately $2,091. This represents a 57% drop from its all-time high of $4,946 recorded in August 2025. For Ethereum to surpass the $4,000 mark again, its current price needs to nearly double. Starting the year at around $3,100, Ethereum hit a low of $1,743 in February, after which it has been consolidating between $2,000 and $2,400. Concerns about macroeconomic recession in places like Iraq and the U.S., along with a large sell-off by Vitalik Buterin, led to the initial decline.

However, the fundamentals of the Ethereum network remain robust. Approximately 30% of the current circulating supply is locked up in staking, and the cumulative holdings of whale wallets have increased by 32% since January this year, reaching a record high of 26.55 million ETH. The future of Ethereum's recapture of $4,000 hinges on the 'Glamsterdam' upgrade, scheduled for June 2026. This upgrade primarily aims to reduce gas fees by 78.6% and boost transaction processing speed to 10,000 transactions per second. Developers have warned that this upgrade, a transformation of the execution layer, could be delayed until the third or fourth quarter if development faces setbacks.

The outlet predicted that if the upgrade proceeds normally, the year-end price would settle in the range of $3,000 to $4,200. Citigroup has set Ethereum's target price at $3,175, and Standard Chartered has raised its year-end forecast to $7,500. This optimistic scenario requires the premise that Bitcoin breaks past $85,000 or $90,000 and that funds continue to flow into spot Ethereum ETFs. Recently, spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a weekly net inflow of $187 million, achieving a total cumulative inflow of $12.05 billion.

The approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission of BlackRock's application for 'ETHB', a staking Ethereum ETF product, is also a crucial variable. If this new product, which offers native staking benefits, is approved in addition to the existing 'ETHA' (which already holds $11 billion in assets), a large-scale influx of institutional funds is expected. Conversely, if the upgrade is delayed beyond the fourth quarter, or if bugs occur, and Bitcoin falls below $70,000, Ethereum could break its $2,085 support level and drop to the $1,500 to $2,000 range. In this case, discussions about breaking $4,000 would be pushed to 2027.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*