Wallet that survived 2017 and FTX awakened... 51,350 BTC moved amidst quantum fear

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) whale/AI generated image

Amidst Bitcoin (BTC) falling from a high of $82,000 to $75,400, an unusual movement was detected in a long-term holder's wallet that had been inactive for over 10 years. While the oldest Bitcoin holders are moving coins at a record pace, the total held balance remains near all-time highs, suggesting a higher likelihood of security transfers rather than large-scale selling.

The Crypto Basic reported on May 23 (local time), citing an analysis by Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, that the movement of coins by investors who have held Bitcoin for over 10 years has reached a very high level compared to the past. Sigel explained that large-scale quantum migration and the gradual aging of Bitcoin supply could be the background for recent movements.

According to VanEck data, the spending activity of the group of holders with over 10 years of tenure has reached the 97th percentile based on the last 10 years. This means they are moving coins more actively than 97% of similar 30-day periods over the past decade. This group moved 51,350 BTC in the last 30 days.

However, an analysis also suggested that it is difficult to conclude large-scale selling solely based on the volume of movement. This is because the total held balance of this group still remains near all-time highs. The Crypto Basic reported that wallets that survived the 2017 peak, the 2018 collapse, the 2021 peak, the 2022 FTX incident, and all cycles in between are now reactivating at a historically unusual pace.

Concerns about quantum computer security were cited as the key background for the recent movements. Quantum migration refers to the process of moving old Bitcoins, stored for over 10 years, from older wallet formats that could be vulnerable to future quantum computers to more secure address formats. It is analyzed that old holders are moving their funds to new address formats like Taproot and SegWit due to growing concerns about future security risks.

According to current estimates, approximately 6.9 million BTC have public keys already exposed on-chain, making them potentially vulnerable to quantum computers. Among these, about 1.7 million BTC are held in the older Pay-to-Public-Key format. In April, contributors including Jameson Lopp proposed BIP-361, which outlines a gradual transition to quantum-resistant signature schemes. This proposal may include a deadline to force holders to transfer old coins before they are frozen or become unusable.

Movements varied across other holding period groups. Holders who purchased Bitcoin 1 to 2 years ago moved 848,895 BTC in the last 30 days, recording the largest movement volume among all groups. In contrast, the 3 to 5-year holder group and the 5 to 7-year holder group generally remained inactive. The 7 to 10-year holder group moved 111,445 BTC in 30 days, showing an increase in activity again.

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