Can 30% of Bitcoin be breached by quantum computers?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Quantum Computer/AI Generated Image ©

A warning has been issued that if quantum computers become a reality, approximately 30% of the Bitcoin (BTC) supply could be at risk. Market tension is increasing, especially with analysis suggesting that holdings on some exchanges, such as Binance and Bitfinex, are highly vulnerable to quantum attacks.

According to FXStreet, an investment media outlet, on May 21 (local time), on-chain analytics firm Glassnode recently analyzed in a report that approximately 6.04 million BTC, or 30.2% of the total supply of currently issued Bitcoin, could be exposed to quantum computer attacks. In contrast, it explained that approximately 13.99 million BTC, or 69.8% of the total, currently have no public key exposure.

Glassnode categorized the risk structure into two types: 'structural exposure' and 'operational exposure'. Structural exposure refers to cases where the script design itself reveals public key information on-chain, accounting for approximately 1.92 million BTC, or 9.6% of the total supply. Operational exposure refers to cases where public keys are already exposed due to address reuse, partial spending, or custody operational methods, amounting to approximately 4.12 million BTC, or 20.6% of the total.

The media explained that if quantum computers sufficiently advance to run Shor's Algorithm, there is a possibility of reverse-calculating private keys based on public keys. A key risk highlighted is that Bitcoin with already exposed public keys on the blockchain can be targeted even if the owner does not move the assets. Glassnode analyzed that early P2PK structures from the Satoshi Nakamoto era, legacy multisig (P2MS), and the latest Taproot (P2TR) structures all share the characteristic of public key exposure.

In the operational exposure segment, exchange holdings were identified as a key risk factor. Glassnode explained that approximately 1.66 million BTC, or 8.3% of the total supply related to exchanges, is in an operationally vulnerable state. This accounts for about 40% of the total operationally vulnerable holdings. Specifically, while Coinbase's exposure rate was only about 5%, Binance showed approximately 85%, and Bitfinex showed 100% to be in a vulnerable structure.

However, Bitcoin held by the governments of the United States, the United Kingdom, and El Salvador was analyzed to have no quantum exposure risk as of now. The media assessed that while the Glassnode report does not immediately imply actual hacking possibilities, it suggests that the debate over Bitcoin network security in preparation for the era of quantum computing is likely to intensify.

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