K33 "Bitcoin, no 80% crash"...points to $60,000 as the 'real bottom'

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

An analysis suggests that the Bitcoin (BTC) bear market is showing a different structure from the past, and the low near $60,000 in February could be the maximum decline of this downturn. Unlike the repeated crashes of over 80% in past bear markets, the 2026 Bitcoin market is evaluated to have limited potential for rapid sell-offs due to the influx of institutional funds and changes in derivatives positions.

According to Bitcoin.com on May 20 (local time), Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33 Research, stated in a report released this week that the conditions defining the 2026 Bitcoin bear market are structurally different from the collapses of over 80% seen in 2018 and 2022. Lunde explained that the 2025 bull market was less aggressive than previous cycles, and consequently, the subsequent bear market would also be relatively less steep.

K33 presented derivatives data as a key piece of evidence. The Bitcoin 30-day average funding rate recorded negative values for 81 consecutive days. This indicates an unusually long period of bearish positions in the perpetual futures market. Lunde assessed this trend as “uniquely pessimistic” investor sentiment, suggesting that short-term selling pressure has largely been exhausted, which could limit further declines.

K33's baseline outlook is for Bitcoin to trade sideways between $60,000 and $75,000. In this scenario, the maximum decline is set at the February low of approximately $60,000. This represents a decline of about 52% from the all-time high of $126,272 recorded on October 6, 2025. While this is a significant drop by stock market standards, it is a relatively limited correction compared to past Bitcoin bear markets that saw drops of over 80%.

K33 identified the role of institutional funds as a key difference in this cycle. With an increasing proportion of Bitcoin access occurring through regulated products, the vicious cycle of extreme leverage that fueled massive liquidations in the past has become difficult to sustain on a large scale. Selling pressure from long-term holders is also nearing exhaustion, and in past cycles, this indicator appeared before a medium-term price bottom.

K33 previously pointed out a trend similar to the late 2022 bear market bottom when Bitcoin approached $60,000 in February. This report extends that analysis, evaluating that if the February low was indeed the bottom, the current market has entered a slow recovery phase rather than a further sharp decline. The market's focus is shifting from how much further Bitcoin will fall to how long the sideways trading between $60,000 and $75,000 will continue.

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