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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image
Although Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded from the $74,000 to $87,000 range, analyst Kevin, who previously pointed to the rejection of highs around $120,000 to $125,000, evaluated this movement not as the start of a new bull market but as a typical counter-trend bounce.
According to Benzinga on May 15 (local time), Kevin stated that Bitcoin could face another significant decline before entering its next full-fledged bull cycle. He presented the failure to break key resistance during the 2025 rally, weakening momentum indicators, bearish divergence, and the breakdown below major moving averages as early warning signs that the market structure has shifted to bearish.
The potential downside levels Kevin suggested are $56,000, $55,000, $48,000, and $44,000. $56,000 was mentioned as the Golden Pocket retracement zone, $55,000 as the 12-day 200 Exponential Moving Average, $48,000 as the 12-day 200 Simple Moving Average, and $44,000 as near the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level.
His bearish scenario is based on similarities to past bear market structures. The analysis suggests that it resembles the pattern where Bitcoin, after losing key moving averages on higher time frames, showed a relief rally but failed to reclaim trend resistance and formed a deeper final low before a new bull market began.
Kevin observed that the monthly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) index still shows weakness, and momentum and capital flow indicators are also still in a reset phase. He pointed out that whale capital flows only showed an initial bounce, and the recent Bitcoin rebound lacks the rounding bottom structure typically seen near cycle lows. He added that there is a large liquidity zone between $44,000 and $54,000, which could attract price action.
However, while presenting a bearish roadmap, Kevin stated that he continues to allocate funds across cryptocurrencies and software stocks. He maintains that he would add exposure if a confirmed breakout occurs or a deeper correction materializes.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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