Bitcoin: $95,000 vs. $70,000 Collapse?

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As Bitcoin once again climbed to the critical juncture of the 200-day moving average, the market is being tested for direction between the extreme paths of an additional rise to $95,000 and a re-decline to $70,000.

According to Benzinga on May 15 (local time), cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen analyzed that Bitcoin (BTC) is contending with the 200-day moving average around $82,400. This range was presented as a key resistance level that halted bearish market rebounds in 2014, 2018, and 2022.

Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin rebounded 37% from its February low of $60,000 to $82,000, similar to the 43% rebound between March and May 2022 that stopped at the same technical range. He said, “There was a really good rebound after the February low, but what I’m saying is that it’s a bear market rebound.” He added, “We have reached a really important resistance level in a bear market.”

However, Cowen explained that there were instances in past bear markets where Bitcoin temporarily broke above the 200-day moving average. In 2014 and 2019, Bitcoin briefly surpassed this line but then returned to a downtrend. He suggested that if Bitcoin surpasses the 200-day moving average, the next resistance would be around the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level, at $85,000.

Cowen explained that bearish market rebounds in 2014, 2018, and 2022 all reversed direction after being halted at the respective Fibonacci levels. In 2014, Bitcoin surpassed the 200-day moving average and stayed above it for about a month before facing resistance at the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level, corresponding to $85,000, and in 2019, it rose to around the higher Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level of $95,000 before collapsing, he analyzed.

Timewise, June was cited as a key variable. Cowen saw that if Bitcoin rises until June, there's a possibility it could form a peak like in 2014 and 2019, and conversely, if it falls until June, there's a possibility it could form a bottom like in 2018 and 2022. He said, “If Bitcoin doesn’t start falling soon, we should view it as a scenario where it rises until June to form a peak and then retraces.” Cowen predicted that if a peak forms in early June, the decline could continue until Q4 2026.

Monthly Heikin Ashi candles were also presented as a warning sign. Benzinga reported that in 2014 and 2019, monthly Heikin Ashi candles briefly turned green before the bear market resumed, and in 2018 and 2022, they remained red throughout the bear market. If this month's candle closes green, it could align more closely with the trends of 2014 and 2019, where a significant decline followed a break above the 200-day moving average. The next two weeks were presented as a critical period that will determine whether Bitcoin heads towards $85,000-$95,000 or falls back to $70,000.

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