Bitcoin: Fear of $70,000 Plunge if 200-Day MA Breakout Fails

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), decline, bear market / AI-generated image ©

Correction from $125,000 high... Analyst's top priority

An analyst who pinpointed Bitcoin's peak around $125,000 has characterized the recent rebound not as the start of a new bull market, but as a counter-trend bounce, warning of a summer bear market and the possibility of further lows.

According to Benzinga on May 15 (local time), crypto analyst Kevin evaluated Bitcoin's (BTC) recent rebound from the $74,000-$87,000 range as a typical counter-trend bounce, not an entry into a new bull market. Kevin was previously introduced as an analyst who had raised the possibility of Bitcoin being rejected around $120,000 to $125,000.

Kevin pointed out that Bitcoin failed to break through key resistance during the 2025 rally, and that weakening momentum indicators, bearish divergence, and a downward break of major moving averages occurred simultaneously. He viewed these signals as early warnings that the market structure had already shifted towards a bearish bias.

The downside target ranges he presented are $56,000, $55,000, $48,000, and a maximum of $44,000. $56,000 was presented as the golden pocket retracement zone, $55,000 as the 200 exponential moving average based on 12 days, $48,000 as the 200 simple moving average based on 12 days, and $44,000 as near the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement line.

Kevin's bearish scenario is based on similarities with past bear market structures. He explained that the current structure resembles past trends where Bitcoin showed a relief rally after losing key moving averages on higher time frames, then failed to recover trend resistance, creating deeper final lows before a new bull market began.

Monthly indicators also have not yet confirmed recovery. Kevin analyzed that the monthly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in bearish territory, momentum and money flow indicators are still in a reset process, and whale money flow only showed an initial rebound. He noted that the recent Bitcoin rebound lacks the rounded bottom structure often seen near cycle lows.

Kevin believes that a large cluster of liquidity lies between $44,000 and $54,000, which could pull the price into that range. However, while presenting a bearish roadmap, he also stated that he continues to allocate capital to cryptocurrencies and software stocks, maintaining flexibility to increase further exposure upon breakout confirmation or deeper corrections.

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