Toncoin Surges 100% in Four Days..."May 24th's 36 Million TON Unlock is the First Test"

▲ Toncoin (TON)

Toncoin (TON) has drawn market attention by surging over 100% in just four days, but warnings have emerged that its actual on-chain revenue and user conversion rate are far too low to support its current market capitalization.

The cryptocurrency YouTube channel Coin Bureau pointed out in a video released on May 15 (local time) that Toncoin soared 100.7% in four days, rising from $1.35 on May 3 to $2.90 on May 7. Its year-to-date increase is 43.9%, contrasting with Solana (SOL) which fell 24%, Avalanche (AVAX) 26%, and Aptos (APT) 40% during the same period. The presenter explained that Telegram's 950 million monthly active users, maximum validator participation, Catchain 2.0 upgrade, 400-millisecond block time, 1/6th reduction in fees, and Pavel Durov's touted 18.8% annual staking yield fueled the bullish sentiment.

However, Coin Bureau noted a significant gap between market expectations and actual figures. Toncoin's 24-hour on-chain revenue is $2,342, which annualizes to only approximately $855,000. In contrast, the market values the Toncoin network at $5.88 billion. The price-to-fee ratio is about 3,440 times, significantly higher than Solana's approximately 310 times, Avalanche's approximately 2,000 times, and Sui's (SUI) approximately 1,000 times. Total Value Locked (TVL) was also presented as $89 million, a 91% decrease from its peak of $800 million in the summer of 2024.

The biggest controversy is the source of the high staking yield. Coin Bureau analyzed that the 18.8% yield emphasized by Durov comes from newly issued tokens, not actual fee revenue. After the Catchain 2.0 upgrade, the annual inflation rate increased from 0.6% to approximately 3.6%, and the current staking ratio of the total supply is only 16.3%. The presenter pointed out that calculating this structure results in an actual annual staking yield of approximately 22%, and while the network mints new Toncoins worth approximately $230 million annually for validator rewards, annual fee revenue amounts to only about $1.7 million. He stated, “The yield is not generated by the network; it's minted by the network.”

The anticipation of Telegram integration has also not yet been proven by numbers. According to the video, Toncoin has 125,000 daily active wallets, and the on-chain conversion rate relative to Telegram's user base is approximately 0.013%. Hamster Kombat recorded 300 million registrations in 2024, but its monthly active users are projected to decrease by 86% to 41 million by the end of 2025, and its TVL, which rose to $800 million due to the mini-app craze, has dropped to around $98 million. Telegram Stars is also an off-chain virtual currency that operates within Telegram's servers, not a TON token, meaning a separate conversion process is required to connect it to actual on-chain demand.

Coin Bureau also presented a bullish scenario for Toncoin. It explained that if Telegram Stars launches extensively in Q3, a significant portion of advertising revenue flows into Toncoin, inflation is lowered to around 1% in the June validator reward vote, and the TON Teleport Bitcoin bridge attracts actual Bitcoin (BTC) liquidity, there is room for TVL recovery. In the short term, the token unlock of approximately 36 million TON, valued at about $93 million, scheduled for May 24, and the June validator reward vote were identified as key tests. The video highlighted as a core risk that the current price reflects Durov's future expectations more than the network's actual productivity, rather than Toncoin's future potential.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*