Institutional Buying Continues, So Why Can't Solana Break $100?

▲ Solana (SOL) ©

Solana has once again been blocked by the '98 dollar wall' that has persisted for three months, entering a phase of direction-finding. However, institutional fund inflows and expectations for network upgrades are only growing stronger.

According to the investment media TradingNews on May 15 (local time), Solana (SOL) moved within the range of $89.36 to $90.60 on that day, maintaining a limited trend around the $90 mark. The media analyzed that Solana has failed to break the $98 resistance level four times since February. Over the past month, SOL has fallen by 8.4%, and over three months, it has dropped by 40.4%. However, its one-year increase rate still stands at 29.91%.

Technically, the $78.17 to $98 box range was presented as a key zone. The intermediate support level was analyzed to be $88.02, and during the recent correction, buying interest flowed in at $90.25, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The media projected that a break above $98 on a daily basis could open up upside potential to $107, and then to $117. Conversely, it diagnosed that if the $90 support level breaks, the possibility of a correction to the $88 and $78 range could increase.

The trends of moving averages and auxiliary indicators were mixed. SOL remains above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $88.25 and the 50-day SMA of $85.66, but the 200-day SMA of $111.94 still remains a strong long-term resistance. The Kijun-sen (base line) of the Ichimoku Cloud is at $89.91, acting as short-term support, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a buy signal. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) indicated that the trend strength is still weak, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was also analyzed as not having reached the overbought zone.

Institutional fund flows were evaluated positively. Solana spot ETFs saw an inflow of $5.97 million in one day, and the Dartmouth College endowment fund invested $3.3 million in the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF. The media interpreted this as a signal that long-term institutional funds are entering the Solana market. In contrast, Forward Industries, the largest Solana holder in the open market, recorded a quarterly net loss of $283 million due to unrealized losses on its 7.04 million SOL holdings. The scale of unrealized losses was reported to be close to $1 billion.

The macroeconomic environment was still cited as a burden. The US 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.12%, and the Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 99.20. Furthermore, analysis suggested that surging oil prices and the increased likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) are putting pressure on risk asset investment sentiment. Nevertheless, the media assessed that the Alpenglow upgrade, FireDancer development, US cryptocurrency market structure legislation, and the classification of digital commodities within the CLARITY Act are creating a favorable long-term environment for Solana. Additionally, the expansion of long positions by top Binance traders and an increase in open interest were also mentioned as factors supporting bullish expectations.

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