Regulatory boons are useless! Terrifying macro fears collapse Upbit's $1 billion trading volume!

▲ Upbit, Bitcoin /AI-generated image ©

As the New York stock market closed lower across the board due to inflation fears driven by high oil prices and soaring interest rates, the investment sentiment in the domestic virtual asset market, as measured by Upbit, is rapidly cooling, with major coins including Bitcoin showing a uniform weakness. With the double whammy of macroeconomic headwinds and institutional fund outflows, trading volume, which indicates market vitality, has plummeted, raising concerns about further corrections.

As of 6:53 AM KST on the 16th, Bitcoin (BTC) on Upbit is trading at 110,619,000 KRW, down 1.25% from the previous day. Ethereum (ETH) also recorded 3,113,000 KRW, down 1.83%, while XRP (Ripple) remained at 2,025 KRW, down 0.74%. In contrast, some altcoins such as Sei (SEI, 1,440 KRW, +11.20%) and Dogecoin (DOGE, 161 KRW, +1.26%) showed a differentiated trend, rising alone amidst the downturn.

The key background of this sharp decline is macroeconomic uncertainty coupled with the change of leadership at the US Federal Reserve (Fed). At a sensitive time when the chairman was being replaced from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh, the US 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.12%, stimulating risk-off sentiment. As a result, the US Bitcoin spot ETF market saw a massive net outflow of over approximately 1.09 trillion KRW (800 million USD) in just two days, causing institutional investors, who had been forming strong buying pressure, to largely shift to a wait-and-see stance.

Domestic investors' buying sentiment also rapidly froze, and signs of a 'trading cliff' were detected. According to data from CoinGecko, a virtual asset market data aggregator, Upbit's 24-hour trading volume at the same time recorded 985.4 million USD (approximately 1.342 trillion KRW), breaking the psychological threshold of 1 billion USD. This figure contrasts with the usual active trading pattern and clearly shows a 'risk-off' phenomenon, where investors have stopped new entries and adopted a wait-and-see approach amid external adverse factors.

The future direction of the market depends on the defense of key technical support levels. Whether Bitcoin successfully defends the support zone of approximately 109 million KRW (78,000 USD) based on KRW is crucial. If this level breaks, a chain reaction of forced liquidation of investors' long positions could occur, with the risk of further declines extending to around 102 million KRW (73,000 USD). Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also suggest that downward pressure remains, requiring caution.

Ultimately, for the coin market to secure a rebound momentum, regulatory tailwinds, such as the final passage of the US crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, in the Senate, will need to outweigh macroeconomic headwinds. Experts advise that until institutional funds flow back into the spot ETF market, volatile sideways trading is likely to continue on exchanges worldwide, including Upbit, and that investors should carefully monitor the recovery of key support levels from a conservative perspective.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*