Bitcoin, is the $80,000 collapse a coincidence?...Looking at on-chain data

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

After surpassing $82,000 at the beginning of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below $79,000 the previous day before recovering to around $80,000. CryptoPotato reported on May 14 (local time) that this sell-off was not random but rather the result of three pressures acting simultaneously.

According to on-chain technical analyst Easy On Chain, warning signs had been appearing even before the price drop. On May 11, exchange withdrawals plummeted to 19,995 BTC. This figure is significantly below the 28,000-35,000 BTC range seen in early May and also lower than the daily average of 25,600 BTC during that period.

Such a reduction in exchange withdrawals means that fewer coins are leaving exchanges. CryptoPotato explained that in this scenario, a structure is created where the available supply for sale remaining on the platform increases rather than decreases. Easy On Chain viewed this as a positive net inflow and analyzed that this trend weakened the market's ability to absorb downward pressure.

The derivatives market also reflected the decline first. From May 8 to 10, open interest increased to 1.04 times the average of the analysis period, and funding rates turned negative and deepened further by May 10. This was interpreted to mean that traders were actively building short positions, betting on a decline.

As downward pressure actually materialized, liquidations of leveraged long positions surged. Easy On Chain stated that on May 12 alone, the volume of long position liquidations was 11.8 times that of short position liquidations. Over the three days from May 11 to 13, approximately $109.7 million in leveraged long positions were forcibly liquidated, which was identified as a major driver of this sharp decline.

The third pressure was the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). CryptoPotato stated that with growing inflation concerns, the release of these indicators provided a selling trigger for traders.

Another analyst, Carmelo Alemán, linked this movement to concentrated whale selling. According to Alemán, wallets holding 1,000-10,000 BTC sold approximately 7,650 BTC during the decline. At an average price of $80,500, this amounts to roughly $616 million.

During this period, Bitcoin fell from approximately $81,000 to below $79,000, and open interest increased by about $590 million. This signals that new leverage entered the market while prices were falling.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin remained about $300 below the $80,000 level, having fallen approximately 2% in the last 24 hours and a similar amount over the last 7 days. It was up about 7% over 30 days but was more than 23% lower year-on-year and more than 36% below its all-time high of around $126,000 recorded in October 2025.

Easy On Chain believes that for Bitcoin to recover to $82,000 again, two signals must be observed: exchange net inflow must turn negative again, indicating a resumption of withdrawals, and the pressure from leveraged long position liquidations must also cool down.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*