"$80,000 Collapse is a Temporary Trend"...STRC Creates Bitcoin 'Buy Cycle'

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $80,000 this week, but some analysts believe this decline may not last long. The structural buying mechanism surrounding Strategy's preferred stock STRC has led to a month-long Bitcoin rally for three consecutive months recently, and this week's scheduled STRC ex-dividend date has emerged as a variable that will once again determine the short-term direction of the market.

Decrypt reported on May 14 (local time) that Bitcoin traded around $79,680 after falling to $78,795 during the day. This is a 0.5% decrease over 24 hours. On the same day, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $630.4 million, which was the largest single-day outflow in the last three months.

Andri Fauzan Adziima, Head of Research at Bitrue Research Institute, diagnosed that this decline may be short-lived. He explained that after sweeping the recent lows around $78,000-$79,000, monthly 50-day moving average defense and a recovery to $80,000 occurred. He added that aggressive accumulation by large wallets continues in the on-chain flow.

In the market background is Strategy's preferred stock STRC. According to a K33 Research report, STRC was identified as a factor that triggered a monthly Bitcoin rally for the past three months. Through this mechanism, Strategy expanded its Bitcoin purchases from 4,467 BTC in January to 22,131 BTC in March, and approximately 46,872 BTC in April.

The STRC structure operates in conjunction with the dividend schedule. STRC pays dividends at the end of each month, and eligibility for receiving dividends is determined by holders as of the 15th ex-dividend date. When investors buy STRC ahead of dividends, the stock price approaches its par value of $100, and Strategy can issue additional shares and use the secured funds to purchase Bitcoin. Vetle Lund, Head of K33 Research, believes that this Friday's STRC ex-dividend date could trigger another month-long rally.

However, a warning also emerged that the May trend is different from before. Adziima explained that it took longer for STRC to recover its par value, and so far, the actual conversion to Bitcoin purchases through this mechanism has only amounted to about 1 BTC. He assessed that the demand for STRC preferred shares appears to be stagnating after the strong momentum in March and April, stating that while the mechanism still exists, it lacks the scale and urgency of before.

Jeff Ko, Senior Analyst at CoinEx, pointed out that Bitcoin is failing to keep pace with the AI-driven stock rally. He analyzed that the past structure where AI rallies also boosted cryptocurrencies has broken down, and instead, the AI rally is absorbing speculative funds that used to flow into cryptocurrencies. However, he presented positive signals, noting that over $4 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs since March, and stablecoins have absorbed over $7 billion since February.

Decrypt reported that if the US cryptocurrency market structure bill review proceeds favorably for the market, it could be a tailwind for the cryptocurrency market. Users of the prediction market Myriad see an 85% chance that Bitcoin's next big move will lead to an $84,000 increase rather than a $55,000 decline. This week's STRC ex-dividend date is expected to be a test to see whether the monthly buying pattern repeated over the past three months will continue for a fourth time, or if it has already lost momentum.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*