Bitcoin, 2022 Nightmare Revisited...CryptoQuant: "$70,000 is the Last Line of Defense"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), S&P 500/AI generated image

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC)'s recent rebound has entered a critical inflection point after failing to break through the 200-day moving average. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant diagnosed that Bitcoin failed to surpass the 200-day moving average near $82,430, and this trend is similar to past situations that led to significant declines.

Decrypt reported on May 13 (local time), citing a CryptoQuant report, that Bitcoin's so-called bear market rally stalled at the 200-day moving average, placing it in a crucial phase before its next direction. According to the report, this rebound is still 37% higher than the April low but showed a similar structure to the relief rally in March 2022. At that time, Bitcoin rose to around $47,000 before falling below $16,000 by the end of the same year.

High unrealized profits were identified as the key background for selling pressure. CryptoQuant stated that traders' unrealized profit rates reached 17.7% on May 5, marking the highest since June 2025. The report explained that such figures increase the incentive for investors holding large unrealized profits to sell, similar to March 2022, when Bitcoin tested the 200-day moving average and then resumed its decline.

Profit-taking has already begun in earnest. CryptoQuant analyzed that last week, traders realized profits amounting to 14,600 BTC, worth $1.16 billion at the time of reporting. This is the largest daily profit realization since December 2025. The firm assessed that historically, such trends have preceded price declines when traders begin selling.

Weakening US spot demand was also cited as a burden. The Coinbase Premium, which shows the Bitcoin price difference between Coinbase and Binance, turned negative after late April. This indicator is typically used to gauge Bitcoin demand within the US, and CryptoQuant explained that it currently shows weakening demand from spot Bitcoin buyers.

However, the report suggested that if further corrections continue, the area around $70,000 could act as a major support level. This price level is the on-chain realized price for traders and has acted as a critical zone where resistance turns into support during bear market phases. CryptoQuant analyzed that at this level, unrealized profit rates would approach zero, potentially reducing incentives for further selling.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*