Bitcoin, the bottom hasn't arrived yet...Analyst "Could fall to $46,000"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), decline/ChatGPT generated image

As Bitcoin (BTC) once again failed to recover the $80,000 mark, an analysis suggests that the bear market is not completely over. The key reasons are three rules: the duration of the bear market, whether it touches the 350-day moving average, and a deeper-than-expected decline.

Bitcoinist reported on May 13 (local time), citing an analysis by crypto analyst Bee, that it is difficult to say the Bitcoin bear market is over. Bee stated on X (formerly Twitter) that there are three rules for a Bitcoin bear market: “A bear market lasts at least 350 days, the bottom is not formed without touching the 350-day moving average, and prices always fall deeper than people expect.”

According to Bee's criteria, the Bitcoin bear market is not yet over, despite the recent relief rally. The chart he presented suggested that Bitcoin could fall to around $46,000 before forming a bottom in this bear market. Bee explained, “The 350-day moving average is at $47,000,” and it has not yet touched that level. However, he presented the fact that 65% of the current bear cycle has already progressed as a positive factor.

Bee predicted that Bitcoin could enter a further downward trend in the short term. He believed that there are many factors currently pressuring upward momentum, making it likely for Bitcoin to fall further, stating, “a flush is coming, and I will turn bullish once it touches the 350-day moving average.” Bitcoin rose to $82,000 over the weekend but fell below $80,000 the previous day after the release of a hot Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The deadlock in peace talks between the U.S. and Iran was also mentioned as an additional downside risk.

Crypto commentator Colin stated that he is more open to the possibility that Bitcoin's bottom has already formed compared to a month ago. However, even if a bottom has formed, he saw a remaining possibility of retesting lows in the $60,000-$70,000 range later this year. Conversely, he also left open the scenario that the cycle bottom has not yet occurred, and even lower prices could be seen towards the end of the year.

Colin explained that the longer Bitcoin consolidates or stays at higher price levels, the less likely the bear market bottom will be lower. According to the report, Bitcoin was trading around $81,200 at the time of writing, showing a downward trend over the past 24 hours.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*