XRP, Only 3% Chance of All-Time High…Why is the Market So Cold?

▲ XRP/AI Generated Image ©

The prediction market still sees a low probability of XRP breaking its all-time high. Although the price rebound continues, the market believes that it will take a significant amount of time for XRP to reach its historical peak again amidst macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks.

According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Finbold on May 11 (local time), traders on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket see only a 3% chance of XRP (Ripple) breaking its all-time high by June 30, 2026. The probability slightly increased to 8% by September 30, the end of Q3 2026, and to 12% by the end of the year. Tens of thousands of dollars in betting funds are reportedly concentrated on this prediction product.

The media attributed the low probability to the overall uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market. It explained that U.S. interest rate policies, global macroeconomic variables, and geopolitical tensions continue to pressure investment sentiment in risky assets. XRP, too, has shown movements similar to the overall market throughout 2026, repeatedly experiencing only limited rebounds, according to the analysis.

Currently, XRP is trading near a support level of $1.45, which is still about 60% lower compared to its historical high of approximately $3.65 recorded during the 2018 bull run. However, its market capitalization exceeds $89 billion, maintaining its position among the top cryptocurrencies.

Experts' forecasts for 2026 are mixed. Conservative scenarios suggest an XRP price range of $1.5 to $2.5, while more optimistic institutional forecasts open up the possibility of reaching $2.8. Some bullish proponents believe that XRP could surpass $3 again if adoption expands, regulatory clarity improves, and the bullish trend in the cryptocurrency market continues.

Technically, the short-term trend is evaluated as relatively stable. XRP is currently trading above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $1.38, maintaining a short-term bullish trend. However, it remains below its 200-day SMA of $1.76, indicating that the long-term trend still carries a burden. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recorded 63.09, indicating buying dominance, but the media reported that if it approaches 70, the possibility of short-term profit-taking and sideways movement could increase.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*