Bitcoin, 'Hesitates' Again at $82,000...When Will Buying Pressure Return?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) is repeatedly being blocked from rising near the $82,000 mark. Although chart conditions seem to be set for a rebound, an analysis suggests that attempts to break through the 200-day exponential moving average have consistently failed due to the lack of a clear recovery in US-based spot buying pressure since October last year.

BeInCrypto reported on May 11 (local time) that the reason Bitcoin is stagnating around $82,000 is not simply a chart issue, but rather the absence of US buyers. According to the article, major exponential moving averages are tightly clustered on Bitcoin's daily chart, and the possibility of a bullish cross between the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages is increasing.

Currently, the 20-day exponential moving average is at $78,805, the 50-day exponential moving average is at $76,016, and the 100-day exponential moving average is at $76,538. In contrast, the 200-day exponential moving average is at $82,020, acting as an immediate resistance level hindering short-term upward momentum.

BeInCrypto explained that the gap between the 50-day and 100-day moving averages is rapidly narrowing, and a bullish cross could be completed within a few days. Previously, a similar compression trend appeared between the 20-day and 100-day lines in late April, and Bitcoin rose by 10.72% for several weeks after the cross. However, for the same upward trend to occur this time, a breakthrough of the 200-day line must first be confirmed.

The problem is that attempts to re-break the 200-day line have continuously failed. Bitcoin attempted to reclaim the 200-day exponential moving average over the weekend but failed, and both the May 6th and May 10th attempts ended in quick pullbacks. BeInCrypto assessed that until the 200-day line turns from resistance to support, the bullish cross of the 50-day and 100-day lines is merely a setup that has not yet triggered an actual rally.

On-chain indicators also point to the absence of US buying pressure. Bitcoin's funding rate has changed its regime over the past three months. From May 2025 to late January 2026, it generally remained in positive territory, indicating long position dominance, but since late January, it has mostly stayed in negative territory. According to CryptoQuant data, the latest funding rate on May 10 was -0.0031%, and at one point in this trend, it fell close to -0.02%.

When the funding rate falls below -0.01%, it is interpreted as a strong signal of short position dominance. However, BeInCrypto explained that if bearish leverage becomes excessively concentrated, the risk of a short squeeze could increase in a phase where prices hold steady. This implies both strong downward pressure and the possibility of a sharp surge in the opposite direction.

In the spot market, the Coinbase Premium Index was presented as a key variable. This indicator shows the price difference between Coinbase and other major exchanges; a positive value means US-based buyers are paying a higher price. Conversely, a negative value signals that US sellers are dominant.

According to BeInCrypto, the Coinbase Premium Index has mostly remained in negative territory since late October 2025. This six-month-long negative trend was interpreted to mean that US spot demand was absent or in a net selling state. The indicator briefly turned positive on May 5 but reverted to negative on May 6, coinciding with the failure to break the 200-day exponential moving average.

From a price perspective, Bitcoin must clearly surpass $82,020 to open the next upward range. Subsequently, if it breaks through the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement line at $83,608, then $86,223 and $88,336 are presented as the next resistance zones. If it surpasses $88,336, the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement line at $90,450 emerges as the next major resistance.

Conversely, in case of a decline, the immediate support level is $79,381. If this level breaks, the next horizontal support is $74,903, and if that is also breached, further downside testing could open up to $70,493. BeInCrypto diagnosed that a meaningful rally is only possible if the 200-day exponential moving average, Coinbase Premium, and funding rates all improve together.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*