Dropped 35% in a year... Will Ethereum fall another 40% against Bitcoin?

▲ Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC)

Amid Ethereum (ETH) falling more than 35% against Bitcoin (BTC) over the past year, the possibility of further weakness has been raised. The relative price movement between Ethereum and Bitcoin is unfolding similarly to the bearish structure of 2024-2025, leading to an analysis that ETH/BTC could fall an additional 40%.

Cointelegraph reported on May 10 (local time) that Ethereum remains below a long-term downtrend line against Bitcoin, and a bearish trend could continue into 2026. ETH/BTC has been trapped below a multi-year downtrend line that has limited all breakout attempts since 2022.

According to the article, similar trends have appeared in the past. Before ETH/BTC fell by approximately 70% from 2024 to 2025, breakout failures occurred near the same downtrend line. The current formation of a similar structure again is presented as the key basis for Ethereum's bearish outlook.

ETH/BTC retested the same trend line in August 2025 and was rejected at a resistance zone where the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level and the 50-month exponential moving average converged. Subsequently, ETH/BTC turned bearish and fell back below the 20-month exponential moving average support level near 0.034 BTC. This was interpreted as a signal that selling pressure still dominates the trend.

If the bearish trend continues, the next major downside target is suggested to be around 0.0176 BTC. This zone is a price level that aligns with the 2020 cycle low and is approximately 40% lower than the current level. Cointelegraph reported that with Ethereum failing to break above the long-term resistance line, this zone could become a major downside target in 2026.

Exchange holding trends also highlighted the difference between Ethereum and Bitcoin. According to CryptoQuant data, Binance's Ethereum holdings increased to 3.62 million ETH as of May. This accounts for approximately 24.6% of the total Ethereum held by exchanges. In contrast, Binance's Bitcoin holdings decreased.

An increase in exchange holdings can generally be interpreted as an increase in sellable supply. If demand cannot sufficiently absorb this, it can put pressure on the price. Conversely, a decrease in exchange holdings often indicates that coins are moving off exchanges for long-term holding purposes.

This trend shows that Ethereum is facing relatively higher pressure from potentially sellable supply than Bitcoin. Cointelegraph analyzed that Binance's holding trends provide a greater supply burden for Ethereum and a tighter exchange liquidity signal for Bitcoin.

Ethereum's weakness was also linked to a change in its fundamental narrative. Ethereum once championed the 'ultrasound money' narrative, but the strength of that narrative is assessed to have weakened. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is explained to continue gaining strength from corporate accumulation, such as Strategy, and the increasing inclusion in Wall Street portfolios.

The core of this analysis is not Ethereum's price in USD but rather its continued relative weakness against Bitcoin. As long as ETH/BTC fails to recover the long-term downtrend line and key moving averages, the risk of further decline towards 0.0176 BTC is expected to remain a key market variable.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*