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▲ XRP, Dollar (USD)
XRP derivative activity has fallen to levels just before the surge in November 2024. As the trading volume of XRP perpetual futures on Binance returned to near its October 2024 low, an analysis emerged suggesting that the market is in a low-activity phase rather than an overheated one.
The Crypto Basic reported on the 9th, citing an analysis by CryptoQuant certified author Amr Taha, that Binance's XRP derivative activity remains at a low level. According to Taha, the trading volume of XRP perpetual futures recorded approximately $372 million on May 7. This is higher than the approximately $242 million on October 25, 2024, but it was evaluated as a low range, indicating that speculative trading has not fully returned.
Compared to past highs, the current slowdown in derivative activity is even more pronounced. XRP derivative trading volume exceeded $2 billion intraday around February 2026 and surpassed $2 billion multiple times in 2025. In some periods in July 2025, it even exceeded $3 billion. The current trading volume is significantly lower compared to these high-volatility periods.
Taha explained that Binance's perpetual futures trading volume is an indicator of short-term traders' interest. Increased trading volume often indicates strong speculative demand, leverage usage, and interest in price fluctuations. Conversely, low trading volume often suggests a cautious market attitude, weak conviction, and low-risk appetite.
This comparison is noteworthy because the low derivative activity in October 2024 preceded a subsequent massive rally. At that time, XRP moved within a narrow range between $0.48 and $0.53, with an average price of about $0.50. Subsequently, in early November 2024, the price began to surge, reaching $3.4 by January 2025. The original text stated the increase in this period was 580% over three months.
However, the current market is not yet showing signs of overheating. Taha analyzed that XRP is not showing signs of excessive leverage on Binance, suggesting that the market remains in a low-activity phase rather than a crowded trading environment.
In terms of price, initial signs of recovery have also been detected. According to the original text, at the time of analysis, XRP dipped below $1.40, touching $1.37, amidst a broader crypto market downturn. Subsequently, XRP rebounded by over 3.6%, reaching $1.42.
Market analyst Ali Martinez stated that the TD Sequential indicator has issued a buy signal on XRP's 4-hour chart. He explained that this indicator has accurately captured recent major trend changes for XRP. Martinez previously noted that on May 6, the indicator issued a sell signal at $1.46, followed by a 5.5% decline over the subsequent 48 hours.
Martinez believes that with this signal turning positive, the recent correction might be over, and XRP has the potential to move to higher levels. He is watching whether XRP returns to the $1.45 resistance level, and if it breaks through that key area, the next target could be $1.80. However, he added that he would closely monitor the 4-hour candle close to confirm the sustainability of the rebound.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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