Ethereum: Has the possibility of breaking $3,000 by the end of May really disappeared?

▲ Ethereum (ETH) ©

While prediction market funds are flocking to the forecast that Ethereum will maintain the $2,200 level until the end of May, expectations for breaking $3,000 are rapidly cooling.

According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Finbold on May 10 (local time), the scenario with the highest probability in the decentralized prediction market Polymarket's 'May Ethereum Price Outlook' market was Ethereum (ETH) maintaining or reaching at least $2,200 by the end of this month. The implied probability for this price range was tallied at 68%.

Market participants are also partially open to the possibility of reaching $2,600. The probability of Ethereum rising above $2,600 by the end of May was 33%. However, the possibility of breaking the psychological resistance level of $3,000 remained at just 3%. The probabilities of reaching $3,400, $3,600, and $3,800 also stayed at around 1% each, significantly weakening expectations for a short-term surge.

Conversely, caution regarding a downside remains. According to Polymarket data, the probability of Ethereum falling to $2,000 was 22%, and the possibility of it dropping to $1,800 was tallied at 6%. Sharp declines to $1,600, $1,400, and $1,200 were each evaluated with low probabilities of 1-3%. Current trading volume appears to be concentrated in the $2,200-$2,800 range, and the market generally perceives this price range as the key consolidation zone.

As of the time of writing, Ethereum's price was $2,306, up approximately 0.8% over 24 hours. Technically, a mixed pattern is observed. ETH is slightly above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $2,225, maintaining a short-term trend, but it is trading below its 200-day SMA of $2,678, indicating it has not yet recovered its long-term trend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 51.36, indicating a neutral zone. This means that buying and selling pressures are relatively balanced. Finbold analyzed that since ETH is currently not in overbought or oversold territory, its future direction is likely to be determined by price movements at key support and resistance levels and market sentiment.

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