Ethereum, forget the $10,000 dream... If it can't cross 'here', the end is a 'fake rally'

▲ Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum (ETH) has recently sparked the $10,000 bull market debate with its recent rebound, but an analysis suggests that a trend reversal based on higher time frames has not yet been confirmed. Crypto analyst Kevin diagnosed that it is difficult to consider it a full-fledged bull market return until Ethereum reclaims the $2,800 range and subsequently reconfirms that range as support.

According to NewsBTC, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on May 8, Kevin stated in a market update on May 7 that although Ethereum recently rebounded from a low near $1,700, the current trend is closer to a rebound within a downtrend rather than a sustainable bull market reversal. He explained that market sentiment shifted from bearish to neutral as the price approached resistance, but such movements often occur during relief rallies.

Kevin asked, “Is the bull market back? Has it returned to an uptrend on a higher time frame? Is Ethereum going to $10,000 now? Has the bear market bottom been reached?” He then added that the current charts have not yet shown the confirmation signals desired by bullish investors.

The key price level is $2,800. Kevin believes that Ethereum needs to rise above $2,800, approach $2,900 or $3,000, and then retest key moving averages as support. He stated, “Ethereum can return above $2,800, rise to $2,900 or $3,000, and then face resistance there. Until it retests key moving averages and the Golden Pocket holds, allowing it to move higher, it's just a rebound within a higher time frame downtrend.”

Kevin pointed out that Ethereum has entered a resistance zone where the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), 21-week EMA, and 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) converge, and it has already shown signs of being pushed back. The long upper wicks on several daily candles were also interpreted as a sign of weaker rebound momentum rather than clean accumulation.

He also noted that the current structure differs from the process of forming a major bottom. In past bull market transitions, a rounded bottom structure, strong retests, and smoother transitions back above key moving averages were observed. In contrast, Ethereum's current movement was assessed as having low trading volume, weak money flow, and insufficient spot inflows and whale fund flows.

Bitcoin (BTC) trends were also presented as a key variable for Ethereum's outlook. Kevin said that when analyzing altcoins, one should first look at the Bitcoin chart, and then confirm USDT market dominance and altcoin pairs against Bitcoin. He believes that the next few days are crucial for determining the overall cryptocurrency market trend as Bitcoin is testing its 200-day Simple Moving Average.

Kevin added that his judgment could change if the charts change. For a valid bullish structure to form, Ethereum needs to break through key moving averages, hold that area as support during a pullback, and then continue its ascent. NewsBTC reported that Ethereum was trading at $2,283 at the time of the original article.

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