Bitcoin, '$200,000' Rally if it Succeeds in 3 Consecutive Monthly Bullish Closes

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Apple (Apple)/AI Generated Image

Bitcoin (BTC) is aiming for a historic record of three consecutive months of monthly candle gains, closing above $76,000 this month. If this goal is realized, a parabolic rally towards $200,000 by year-end is expected to begin, signaling the complete end of the bear market.

Crypto-focused YouTube channel Altcoin Daily, in a video uploaded on May 8 (local time), cited analysis from Fundstrat's Head of Research, Tom Lee, stating that Bitcoin recording three consecutive months of monthly candle gains is a typical signal of entering a bull market. Lee predicted that Bitcoin is highly likely to reach between $150,000 and $200,000 by year-end, and Ethereum (ETH) could rise to $7,000. The virtual asset market is already reinforcing this optimistic outlook, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surging over 20% since the outbreak of the Iran war.

Positive changes are also being observed on the legislative front. U.S. Senator Angela Alsobrooks stated that with the resolution of the key issue of stablecoin yield, the likelihood of the U.S. crypto market structure bill (CLARITY) passing this year has significantly increased. White House official Patrick J. Wit announced that they are aiming for a scenario where the President signs the bill on July 4th, coinciding with the 250th Independence Day of the United States. Once regulatory clarity is secured, the last barrier preventing institutional investors from participating in the market is expected to be removed.

The asset holding behavior of institutional investors has also proven to be much more robust than individual investors' expectations. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, analyzed that institutions approach Bitcoin with over 80% to 90% conviction, exhibiting a 'diamond hands' tendency that remains unfazed even by a 50% price drop. The steady influx of billions of dollars each month through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) is becoming a key driver in ensuring the market's downside rigidity.

There is also an increasing number of cases where traditional financial giants are applying blockchain technology to real-world scenarios. JP Morgan and Mastercard recently successfully completed cross-border tokenized transfers of U.S. Treasury bonds using the XRP Ledger. This experiment, utilizing Ondo Finance's short-term government bond fund OUSG, demonstrated technical reliability by choosing the XRP Ledger's infrastructure over Ethereum or Solana. This is being hailed as 'a strong signal demonstrating the practical integration of blockchain technology into traditional financial systems.'

The correlation with macroeconomic indicators is also noteworthy. Since the outbreak of the Iran war, while the stock market experienced volatility, Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded returns of over 20%, demonstrating their characteristics as risk-averse assets. Particularly, signs of oil prices stabilizing downwards at around $91 per barrel act as a positive factor improving investment sentiment across all risk assets. If Bitcoin maintains the $76,000 level and completes three consecutive monthly bullish candles, the virtual asset market will enter an unprecedented large-scale bull cycle.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*