Cold Water on Bitcoin Bottom Theory..."It's All Just Narrative Until $88,880 is Reclaimed"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Although Bitcoin (BTC) has strongly rebounded since its February low, an analysis suggests there is still a lack of decisive evidence to support the claim that the market bottom has already been confirmed. IT Tech, a CryptoQuant certified analyst, pointed out that it is difficult to accept the bottom theory as data until Bitcoin recovers and holds $88,880.

According to the cryptocurrency media outlet The Crypto Basic on May 7 (local time), IT Tech analyzed that while many traders are currently declaring a Bitcoin bottom, on-chain data still points to strong selling resistance levels. He noted that there is still pressure above Bitcoin as holders in loss might attempt exit sales near their acquisition cost. At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $80,870.

Those who support the Bitcoin bottom theory view the $60,000 range in February as the low point of this cycle. The decline at that time represented a 52.5% drop from the all-time high of $126,200. Since then, Bitcoin has not made further lows and has rebounded by over 37%. This trend has strengthened market observers' claims of a confirmed bottom.

However, IT Tech explained that three major realized price resistance levels lie above Bitcoin. The realized price for 3-to-6-month holders is $88,880, for 12-to-18-month holders is $93,450, and for 6-to-12-month holders is $111,850. These price levels represent the average acquisition cost for holders who purchased during those respective periods, meaning that if the price approaches these ranges, investors in loss might sell at their break-even point.

The key benchmark is $88,880. IT Tech emphasized that Bitcoin should not merely touch this price but must decisively break through it and maintain it as a support level. Reclaiming $88,880 could lead to a reduction in short-term selling pressure as the group of holders currently in loss would move into profit. Conversely, if this condition is not met, a rally in the $85,000 to $88,000 range could be stifled by selling pressure from late entrants who bought between November 2025 and February 2026.

IT Tech stressed that market structure and holder data are more important than bottom declarations based on investor sentiment. He stated, "A bottom declaration is a narrative. Reclaiming and holding $88,880 is data." While the Fear & Greed Index rose from 5 in February to a neutral 47, indicating a recovery in market sentiment, The Crypto Basic reported that whether $88,880 is reclaimed remains the key confirmation point for the Bitcoin bottom theory.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*