XRP ETF Fund Inflows, Can It Break Through the $1.45 Supply Wall? ...CLARITY Act in Focus

▲ XRP ETF/ChatGPT Generated Image ©

Institutional funds are once again flocking to the XRP (Ripple) ETF market, but the $1.44-$1.45 supply wall has emerged as the biggest challenge for a price rebound.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on May 5 (local time), the cumulative net inflow into XRP ETFs has exceeded $1.29 billion, and the total net assets are estimated at around $1.4 billion. Volatility Shares XRP ETF (XRPI) traded at $7.91, rising 1.09% in a day, and Rex-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) rose 0.96% to $11.54. The underlying asset, XRP, traded at $1.4161, up 1.59%.

Supply and demand have also improved recently. U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs saw a net inflow of $3.87 million on Monday, and the total net inflow for April was $81.63 million, marking the largest monthly inflow in 2026. This trend has fully recovered the $31.16 million net outflow in March. In particular, Bitwise has taken the lead in the ETF market with cumulative inflows of $425.61 million, surpassing Canary Capital's $421.86 million.

However, the reason prices cannot break out strongly is also clear. The media outlet pointed out that approximately 36.8 billion XRP are concentrated in the $1.44-$1.45 range for XRP. This accounts for about 60% of the total circulating supply, creating a structure where break-even selling and profit-taking could pour out whenever the price approaches this level. While the cumulative ETF inflow of $1.29 billion is a significant amount, analysis suggests it is insufficient to absorb this supply wall, estimated at approximately $53 billion, in the short term.

The market environment is also mixed. Bitcoin (BTC) dominance hit 60.66%, its highest since April 2021, and the altcoin season index remained at 37. This means that funds are still concentrated in Bitcoin, and a full-fledged rotation into altcoin ETFs, including XRP, has not yet spread. XRP derivative open interest (OI) slightly recovered to $2.54 billion, but it is still significantly lower compared to its peak of $10.94 billion in July 2025.

Fundamental burdens also remain. XRPL payment volume plummeted by 90% compared to its peak in February 2026, and Alphractal Delta growth rate, which indicates new fund inflows, remained deep in negative territory at -111.7. Technically, XRP is hovering around its 50-day exponential moving average of $1.41 from its current price of $1.4161, but the 100-day moving average at $1.51 and the 200-day moving average at $1.74 are still above it. If the $1.36-$1.40 support level breaks, the risk of a decline to $1.30 could increase.

Ultimately, the next direction for XRP ETFs depends on the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, and whether it can break above $1.45. The media outlet suggested that if the Senate review schedule proceeds positively before May 21, additional funds could flow into XRPI, XRPR, and Bitwise XRP products. Conversely, if it fails to overcome the $1.44-$1.45 supply wall, the price is likely to remain range-bound despite improved ETF supply and demand.

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