Sideways until late May? This is how Bitcoin's direction is decided

▲ Bitcoin(BTC) ©Dasol Ko

Although Bitcoin is showing signs of a rebound, an AI model forecasts a 'sideways market' until the end of May instead of a clear uptrend, lowering market expectations.

According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Finbold on May 1 (local time), an AI price prediction model projected that Bitcoin (BTC) would trade at around $76,199 as of May 31. This represents a decrease of approximately 1.43% compared to the benchmark price of $77,306 at the time of prediction, suggesting a box-range movement with limited volatility rather than a sharp drop.

This prediction was calculated by comprehensively analyzing the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), moving averages, Fibonacci retracement, ETF fund flows, derivatives liquidation data, market sentiment, and Bitcoin dominance. There were also deviations among models, with the most optimistic scenario indicating a 4.07% increase and the most pessimistic case pointing to a 7.45% decrease.

The market environment is also close to an 'ambiguous equilibrium state.' Bitcoin is currently up 1.34% in 24 hours around $77,306, but it's not enough to be considered a strong breakout signal. However, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $14.76 million on April 30, after three consecutive days of approximately $500 million in net outflows, indicating some easing of selling pressure.

The derivatives market also shows a stable trend. According to Coinglass data, the total liquidation volume decreased by 65.75% over 24 hours to $49.29 million. This means that the risk of a sharp decline due to forced liquidations has decreased, suggesting that the recent rebound is forming on a more stable foundation.

Technically, $76,118 (Fibonacci 61.8% level) acts as a key support level. If this level is maintained, an attempt to re-break $77,411 is possible, but a break below could open up the possibility of a correction to $75,000. At the same time, Bitcoin dominance rose to 60.16%, indicating a strengthening defensive flow of funds moving from altcoins to Bitcoin. Market sentiment also remains in the 'fear' zone (43), maintaining a wait-and-see attitude rather than aggressive buying.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*