"If it can't break through now, it's over"...Bitcoin enters its final two weeks before the bear market wall

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a critical zone, the bear market resistance band, entering a pivotal phase where its direction will be determined within the next 1-2 weeks. If it fails to break through this zone, there is a high possibility that the downtrend will resume.

Benjamin Cowen analyzed in a video released on his YouTube channel on April 28 (local time) that Bitcoin is currently facing strong resistance at the bear market resistance band. He explained that this trend is similar to historical patterns that have repeated in midterm election years. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin also encountered resistance and underwent corrections in the same zone, emphasizing that an upward trend is difficult to sustain unless the resistance line transforms into a support line.

The macro environment is also acting as a burden. The rebound in the energy sector ETF (XLE) is likely to put pressure on the virtual asset market. Cowen pointed out that rising oil prices could delay the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cuts, which is a negative variable for Bitcoin, which relies on liquidity. Indeed, in 2022, there was a case where the peak of energy stocks coincided with the bottom of Bitcoin.

The current market structure is more similar to the late bear market trend of 2018 than the early bull run of 2019. At that time, after the formation of a higher time frame in April, a sharp decline followed, starting with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Cowen identified the fact that funds are not circulating into altcoins while Bitcoin dominance is rising as a key risk factor. He believes that a rebound without sufficient correction has low sustainability.

The movement of stablecoin dominance is also interpreted as a warning signal. A pattern of Bitcoin price falling whenever stablecoin dominance rises has been repeated. In particular, the fact that this correction is occurring amidst indifference rather than market overheating clearly indicates a weakening of investor sentiment.

Bitcoin must decide whether to break through the bear market resistance band in the short term. If it fails to reclaim the 200-day moving average, downward pressure could intensify, and the possibility of retesting the $60,000 zone remains open. The market has entered a risk management phase, closely watching energy prices and changes in interest rate policy.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*