Dogecoin Watching the Fed, What's the Momentum to Break Through the $0.100 Maginot Line?

▲ Dogecoin (DOGE)/ChatGPT generated image ©

Ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision, investor sentiment across the virtual asset market froze, leading meme coin leader Dogecoin (DOGE) to fail in breaking through the psychological barrier of $0.100 and fall back to the $0.098 level.

According to investment media FXStreet on April 28 (local time), Dogecoin failed to overcome the strong sell wall stacked around $0.100 and continues a tedious sideways trend between the $0.090 support level. This price correction precisely aligns with the cold investor sentiment in the virtual asset market, which is weighed down by macroeconomic uncertainties, and indeed, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index plummeted from 47 to 33 the previous day, revealing strong market caution.

The main factor that cooled the market atmosphere is the escalation of geopolitical crisis in the Middle East. Although expectations for a diplomatic resolution between the U.S. and Iran had emerged, U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly canceled the dispatch of a peace envoy, bringing the situation back to square one. As the U.S.'s firm stance was reconfirmed, stating that it would not accept a compromise for opening the Strait of Hormuz without Iran abandoning its nuclear program, risk aversion sentiment rapidly spread.

The enthusiasm of individual investors for Dogecoin is also rapidly cooling. As of Tuesday, open interest in the futures market slightly decreased from $1.37 billion the previous day to $1.35 billion. Although it has somewhat recovered from its low of $894 million in March, it is still far below the peak of $6 billion in September, which led to past explosive rallies. The weakness in the derivatives market is unfavorable for bulls (buyers) looking for short-term gains.

Nevertheless, positive signs remain. The open interest weighted funding rate has consistently stayed in positive territory since mid-April at 0.0089%. This suggests that buyers are still strongly willing to maintain long positions, betting on price increases even if it means paying fees. Technically, Dogecoin is maintaining the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at approximately $0.096 and the Bollinger Bands midline on the daily chart, showing neutral-to-strong downside support in the short term.

While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram still records positive values, indicating a buying advantage, for Dogecoin to successfully rebound again, it must break through the upper Bollinger Band at $0.101 and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average at $0.104. Conversely, if downward pressure intensifies and the $0.096 support level collapses, a deeper correction, pushing it down to the lower Bollinger Band at $0.091 and the former trend resistance level of $0.089, is expected to be inevitable.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*