Bitcoin, $76,000 Collapse...Is Price Recovery Possible?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Bear Market/AI Generated Image

As Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break the $80,000 resistance and fell below the $76,000 mark, on-chain data signals regarding future recovery possibilities are mixed.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet Cointelegraph on April 28 (local time), Bitcoin showed a downward trend due to uncertainties surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and macroeconomic anxieties. Currently, Bitcoin is trapped between a strong technical support level of $75,500 and a psychological resistance level of $80,000. Experts analyzed this correction as a typical market reaction ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Looking at technical indicators, the $75,500 level is a key support line where the 20-day and 100-day moving averages pass. Glassnode's realized price distribution data for unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) shows that approximately 298,560 BTC were bought around the $75,500 mark. Conversely, around $78,000, 335,650 BTC have been accumulated, indicating strong short-term selling pressure resistance. There is also significant oversupply between $82,000 and $84,000.

On-chain data shows a mixed trend, with both upward momentum and cautious sentiment coexisting. Over the past week, the spot cumulative volume delta surged by approximately 200%, from $18.3 million to $54.8 million, demonstrating strong buying pressure. However, spot trading volume decreased by 13.8%, from $6.95 billion to $5.99 billion. The number of daily active addresses also fell by 1.6%, suggesting a decrease in network participation and speculative interest.

Institutional investor demand also remains neutral. Strategy, the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, recently purchased an additional 3,273 BTC at a price of $78,000, showing market confidence. However, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF market recorded a net outflow of $273 million last Monday, breaking a 9-day streak of inflows. Swissblock diagnosed that while Bitcoin's price structure points to an uptrend, its fundamentals remain vulnerable.

Currently, the market is "sandwiched" on the liquidation heatmap between sell orders at $78,600 and buy orders below the spot price. Advice suggests that for the price to successfully reverse its medium-term trend, fundamentals must strengthen beyond neutral. Investors are exercising caution, balancing risk management and capital rotation. Bitcoin now needs a strong catalyst to overcome its vulnerable network indicators and reclaim the $80,000 mark.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*