XRP, countdown to $1 collapse begins...200-week line breached and 47% further plunge a reality?

▲ XRP

As XRP gave up the 200-week moving average, a key indicator of its long-term trend, the technical possibility of a massive additional decline of up to 47% has been raised, heightening investor tension.

According to U.Today, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on April 28 (local time), XRP has fallen below the 200-week moving average, which was considered a psychological and technical last line of defense, due to its recent decline. Virtual asset analysts analyzed that this breakdown of the support line suggests a fundamental weakening of the market structure beyond a simple correction. The 200-week moving average is used as a crucial indicator that distinguishes between long-term uptrends and downtrends of an asset, and if this line turns into a resistance level, downward pressure could intensify.

Technical analysis shows that XRP is currently facing additional downward pressure, being blocked by resistance around $1.4. U.Today warned that this break of the support line has opened up a technical downside target of up to 47% lower than the current level. If this scenario materializes, the XRP price risks falling below the $1 mark and entering a long-term sideways trading range. Amid weakened market buying sentiment, a slight increase in supply on exchanges also supports the possibility of further decline.

Key auxiliary indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also indicate a weakening of buying power. In particular, Santiment's on-chain data shows that the activity of large investors, or whales, has decreased to 2021 low levels, indicating a lack of willingness to defend the market. The ongoing regulatory uncertainty between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), along with delays in processing the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, are also accelerating the exodus of large investors.

From a macroeconomic perspective, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a surge in international oil prices are acting as headwinds for XRP, leading to a risk-off sentiment. As Bitcoin (BTC) failed to reclaim the $80,000 mark and underwent a correction, the overall altcoin market sentiment index has fallen to a neutral phase. Investors diagnosed that the rotation of capital into Ethereum spot ETFs or the outflow of users to Layer 2 networks are diminishing the attractiveness of the Ripple ecosystem.

For XRP to reverse its downtrend, it must quickly reclaim the $1.42 line on a weekly closing basis. Without decisive intervention from buyers, support levels around $1.11 and $1 are expected to be tested sequentially. Virtual asset analysts are also open to the possibility that the current decline could be the market's final capitulation phase, but advised maintaining a conservative stance by focusing on risk management for the time being. XRP continues its struggle to establish new price defense lines at a technical crossroads.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*