Likely to Pass in May vs. 50% Chance…US CLARITY Act Divides Fate of Crypto Market

“Likely to Pass in May vs. 50% Chance”…US Crypto Market Structure Bill Divides Market Fate

▲ Novogratz/Source: X ©

Regarding the US crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, conflicting predictions of 'virtual passage' and '50% chance' are emerging simultaneously, leading to a mix of market anticipation and uncertainty.

According to the crypto media outlet Bitcoinist on April 26 (local time), Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz predicted that the bill would pass Congress in May and be sent to President Donald Trump in June.

Novogratz emphasized that this bill could significantly expand global financial accessibility. He explained that currently, approximately 5.5 billion people cannot access US financial products, but smartphone-based crypto wallets could open a path for individuals worldwide to directly participate in the US economy. He added that the tokenization of large corporations like SpaceX and Google could also become possible.

However, within the same company, views diverge. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, presented a cautious stance, estimating a 50% chance of passage by 2026. He specifically warned that if the Senate Banking Committee markup schedule is not confirmed by mid-May, the likelihood of passage could sharply decrease.

Indeed, industry expectations are wavering as the originally scheduled Senate markup date has been delayed. However, Thorn mentioned the possibility of the markup schedule being announced by the end of April and identified the conflict between the banking sector and the crypto industry over stablecoin yields as a primary reason for the delay.

The CLARITY Act passed the House with bipartisan support in July 2025, but progress has since stalled in the Senate. Novogratz maintained his position that it is 'a very important bill for both Democrats and Republicans' and will eventually pass.

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