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▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Whale / AI Generated Image
Bitcoin (BTC) recently showed a rebound, recovering the $77,000 level. However, an analysis suggests that whale accumulation is not a true bottom confirmation but rather an opportunistic move aimed at short-term profits.
According to a BeInCrypto report on April 24 (local time), Bitcoin price is trading around the $77,670 level within an ascending channel formed since late February. On-chain data analytics firm Santiment stated that whale groups holding between 10,000 BTC and 100,000 BTC resumed accumulation on April 22. This whale cohort has shown a pattern of repeated buying at local lows, such as increasing their holdings from 2.26 million BTC to 2.27 million BTC in early February when Bitcoin was below $62,000.
The current whale buying coincides with a technical indicator: the moving average crossover. Whale accumulation began on the day a golden cross occurred on the 12-hour chart, where the 20-day exponential moving average crossed above the 200-day exponential moving average. This suggests a strong short-term trading nature, aiming to profit from technical rebound zones rather than confidence in the market's long-term value. Whales are operating around the $77,000 mark, not at the bottom range of $68,200.
The movement of long-term investors shows a contrasting trend to that of whales, adding to market instability. According to Glassnode's Net Holder Position Change metric, mid-term investors' accumulation peaked at 38,401 BTC on April 21, then sharply dropped by 16% to 32,303 BTC in just three days. This is evidence that conviction investors, who form the market's core support base, are either observing from the sidelines or offloading their holdings instead of participating in this rebound.
On April 22, Bitcoin faced strong resistance at the top of its ascending channel, $79,528, and reversed downwards. This indicates that whale buying alone has limitations in breaking above the channel's upper boundary without the support of long-term holders. If the price fails to surpass $79,528 on a daily closing basis, a correction to the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of $75,523 is widely expected.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market stands at a crossroads, potentially experiencing a dead cat bounce – a temporary rebound driven by whales. If it fails to break $79,528 and the $75,523 support level also collapses, the price could be pushed down to $71,043, and further to the channel bottom at $62,559. Investors should not be misled by whale accumulation figures alone but should cautiously respond after confirming the return of long-term holders.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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