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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image ©
Behind the relentless rally of the leading asset, driven by overheated speculative capital in the futures market, the dryness of spot (cash) demand and the cold downward bets of giant whales intersect, casting a shadow of a huge price correction over the market.
According to crypto media outlet Finbold on April 23 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) recently surged from $66,000 to $79,500 for the first time since late January, driven by an explosion in perpetual futures demand in the derivatives market. CryptoQuant data analysis reveals a critical weakness behind this impressive rally: despite positive demand from spot exchange-traded funds such as BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, continuous net selling has occurred in the spot market over the past 30 days.
This situation is very similar to the precarious market conditions in early January 2026, when Bitcoin soared to $98,000 solely on derivatives demand amidst spot selling pressure. Experts warn that if derivatives traders begin to take significant profits while selling pressure in the spot market intensifies, Bitcoin's price could quickly collapse, leading to a capitulation phase.
In particular, according to Alphalectal data, while individual investors (Retail Traders) are aggressively increasing their long position leverage and cheering for an uptrend, whales, who manage large capital, are instead betting on an upcoming price correction, showing a stark difference in perspective. The fact that whales have prevailed against individual investors (Retail Traders) in 4 out of the last 5 instances where such extreme position discrepancies occurred lends stronger credibility to a bearish scenario.
Former fund manager Axel Kivall stated that the recent price increase has not fully reversed the macro bearish trend. According to technical chart analysis, Bitcoin has been trapped within a large bearish flag pattern in the form of an ascending channel since early February, and has already faced strong resistance and been pushed back twice at the upper boundary of this ascending channel.
Consequently, despite the leading asset having surpassed the average entry price of recent buyers, there is a high risk that it will plunge back below $70,000 due to structural vulnerabilities, testing the lower support line of the macro bearish flag pattern. However, if conditions are met where spot demand dramatically recovers and investor sentiment in the derivatives market turns bullish again, there remains a possibility to overcome the correction crisis and ignite a new major rally.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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